我国沿海城市洪潮组合风险分析  

Analysis on urban flooding risk caused by flood tide combination in coastal cities

作　　者：徐宗学[1,2] 任梅芳 陈浩 XU Zongxue;REN Meifang;CHEN Hao(College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《水资源保护》2021年第2期10-14,27,共6页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502701)。

摘　　要：针对沿海城市防洪安全和经济可持续发展的问题,从气候变化和人类活动两个方面对沿海城市洪涝事件的成因进行了归纳。以深圳市为例,选取大沙河上游西沥水库站和深圳湾赤湾潮位站为代表站,基于Copula函数,对深圳市洪潮组合进行风险分析。结果表明,虽然降水和高潮位的双阈值组合风险率小于单域值组合风险率,但深圳市同时遭遇暴雨和高潮位时所造成的城市洪涝灾害更为严重,经济损失和人员伤亡更为巨大;在城市防洪防潮排涝规划、设计时需更加关注降水和潮位的双阈值组合风险率大小。Aiming at the problems of flood control safety and sustainable economic development in coastal cities,this paper summarizes the causes of flood events in coastal cities from two aspects of climate change and human activities.Taking Shenzhen as an example,Xili reservoir station in the upper reaches of Dashahe River and Chiwan tide station in Shenzhen Bay were selected as representative stations,and the risk analysis of flood tide combination in Shenzhen City was carried out based on Copula function.The results show that although the combined risk rate of precipitation and high tide level is lower than that of single field value,the urban flood disaster caused by rainstorm and high tide level in Shenzhen City is more serious,and the economic loss and casualties are more serious.In the planning and design of urban flood prevention and drainage,more attention should be paid to the combined risk rate of precipitation and tide level.

关 键 词：沿海城市 洪潮组合 城市洪涝 暴雨潮位 COPULA函数 深圳市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]