Diversity of the Coupling Wheels in the East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Interannual Time Scale: Challenge of Summer Rainfall Forecasting in China  

作　　者：Congwen ZHU Boqi LIU Kang XU Ning JIANG Kai LIU 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,and Institute of Climate System,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510301,China [3]National Marine Environmental Forecast Center,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2021年第4期546-554,共9页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41830969, 41775052, 42005011, 41776023 and 42076020);the National Key R&D Program (Grant No. 2018YFC1505904);the Scientific Development Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) (Grant No. 2020KJ012 and 2020KJ009);the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS (Grant Nos. 2018Z006);Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS (Grant No. 2020340);supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。

摘　　要：Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the interaction between the Mongolian cyclone over North Asia and the South Asian high(SAH) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau at 200 hPa. The second mode presents the coupling between the anomalous low-level western Pacific anticyclone and upperlevel SAH via the meridional flow over Southeast Asia. These two modes are responsible for the summer rainfall anomalies over China in 24 and 7 out of 37 years, respectively. However, the dominant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean fail to account for the first coupling wheel's interannual variability, illustrating the challenges in forecasting summer rainfall over China.

关 键 词：East Asian summer monsoon coupling circulation modes summer rainfall anomalies China 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]