考虑非均匀暴雨中心空间分布的洪水预报方法  

The Flood Forecasting Method Considering the Spatial Distribution in the Inhomogeneous Rainstorm Center

作　　者：刘佳[1] 邱庆泰 王维 胡春歧 王海宁 王恒 LIU Jia;QIU Qing-tai;WANG Wei;HU Chun-qi;WANG Hai-ning;WANG Heng(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Hebei Hydrological Survey and Research Center,Shijiazhuang 050031,China;Baoding Hydrological Survey and Research Center of Hebei Province,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018 [3]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [4]河北省水文勘测研究中心,河北石家庄050031 [5]河北省保定水文勘测研究中心,河北保定071000

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第1期46-53,共8页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51822906);中国水科院基本科研业务费项目(WR0145B732017);国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC1502405)。

摘　　要：在洪水预报实践中,降雨在流域空间分布的不均匀性一直是影响预报精度的主要问题之一,这一问题在我国半湿润、半干旱及干旱地区尤为突出。本文提出了一种针对非均匀暴雨空间的洪水预报方法,按照非均匀暴雨中心的空间分布,可以将流域划分为“暴雨核心区”和“非暴雨核心区”,分别采用不同的水文模型参数进行产汇流计算。该预报方法可充分利用流域内各雨量站在暴雨期间的雨量分布信息,考虑降雨开始时土壤含水量在流域上的差异,方法简单,易于操作。方法中提出的降雨不均匀系数能定量有效地判断流域内发生不均匀降雨的临界点,有助于准确判断该预报方法在实际预报中的使用时机。实践证明,该方法可以减少在降雨不均匀情况下选择模型参数的不确定性,与传统方法相比能有效提高洪水预报精度。In the practice of flood forecasting,the inhomogeneous rainfall distribution is one of the main problems affecting the forecasting accuracy.The problem is especially prominent in semi-humid,semi-arid and arid area of China.The flood forecasting method proposed by this study aims at improving the forecasting accuracy of floods caused by inhomogeneous rainstorms.Based on the spatial distribution of the storm center,the river basin is divided into a“storm core area”and a“non-storm core area”,and different runoff generation and concentration parameters are adopted for the two areas during the rainfall-runoff modeling.The method is simple and easy to operate,which takes full advantage of the rainfall information measured by rain gauges and considers the spatial diversity of the soil water at the beginning of the storm.The proposed rainfall inhomogeneous coefficient can help determine the critical time of the storm occurrence so as to tell when to initialize the flood forecasting method.A case study shows that using the forecasting method can largely reduce the parameter uncertainties when dealing with the inhomogeneous storms and effectively increase the flood forecasting accuracy compared with traditional methods.

关 键 词：非均匀暴雨 空间分布 预报 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学] TV122.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]