气候变化背景下农业适应性调整效果定量化评估研究进展  

Research progress on quantitative assessment of agricultural adaptation effect under the background of climate change

作　　者：陈思宁[1,2] 郭军[1] 赵艳霞[2] 李兴阳 陈跃浩[1] 郭玉娣 CHEN Si-ning;GUO Jun;ZHAO Yan-xia;LI Xing-yang;CHEN Yue-hao;GUO Yu-di(Tianjin Cliamte Center,Tianjin 300074,China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Tianjin Jinghai District Meteorological Bureau,Tianjin 301600,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市气候中心,天津300074 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]天津市静海区气象局,天津301600

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2021年第5期5-12,34,共9页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31701314);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J075)。

摘　　要：定量评估农业适应性调整效果有助于农业适应策略及规划的制定与决策。采用文献综述法和对比分析法,总结了气候变化背景下农业适应性调整效果定量化评估研究进展;并针对现有研究存在的主要问题,尝试从方法、模型等方面寻求相关问题的解决办法。结果表明,现有的气候变化农业适应性调整效果的定量化评估研究主要包括2个方面。①从作物生长发育的角度,作物模型常被用于评估适应前后作物生长发育进程及产量等作物生长发育参数的变化;②从经济效益的角度,主要偏重于分析农业适应性策略的成本投入及经济产出。提出应加强未来气候变化情景下农业适应性调整效果的定量评估研究,建立有针对性的农业适应性定量评估方法及模型;依据各类经济分析方法优势互补的特点,使用多种经济分析方法开展农业适应策略的定量评估研究;结合不确定性分析定量评估农业适应性调整效果。The quantitative evaluation of the effect of agricultural adaptation will be helpful to the formulation and decision-making of agricultural adaptation strategy and planning.This paper summarized the research progress of quantitative assessment of agricultural adaptation effect under the background of climate change by literature review and comparative analysis,and tried to find solutions to the related problems from methods,models and other aspects.The results show that the existing quantitative evaluation of agricultural adaptation to climate change mainly includes two aspects.①From the perspective of crop growth and development,crop model is often used to evaluate the changes of crop growth and development parameters such as crop growth and development process and yield before and after adaptation;②from the perspective of economic benefits,it mainly focuses on the analysis of cost input and economic output of agricultural adaptation strategies.It was suggested that we should strengthen the quantitative evaluation research on the effect of agricultural adaptation adjustment under the future climate change scenario,establish the targeted quantitative evaluation methods and models of agricultural adaptation;according to the characteristics of complementary advantages of various economic analysis methods,use a variety of economic analysis methods to carry out the quantitative evaluation research on agricultural adaptation strategies;combine uncertainty analysis to quantitatively evaluate agricultural adaptation adjustment effect.

关 键 词：气候变化 农业适应性 定量评估 不确定性 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467