引航员不安全行为干预的系统动力学仿真  

System dynamics simulation on unsafe behavior intervention of pilots

作　　者：田力 胡甚平[1] 席永涛[1] 张欣欣[1] TIAN Li;HU Shenping;XI Yongtao;ZHANG Xinxin(Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2021年第1期88-93,共6页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFB1600600);上海市重点学科建设项目(T0603);上海市2020年度“科技创新行动计划”软科学重点项目(20692108700)。

摘　　要：为减少引航员的不安全行为,采用鱼骨图分析引航员不安全行为的影响因素,提出引航员不安全行为的干预策略,进而建立引航员不安全行为干预的系统动力学模型。结合港口引航员调研数据,对引航员不安全行为的动态演变过程进行仿真。案例计算结果表明:在干预策略实施期间,引航员驾引过程中不安全行为、不安全心理、不安全生理水平呈现先增后减的抛物线趋势。安全价值观和安全能力提升速度最快,干预效果最显著。提升引航员的安全价值观和安全能力是减少引航员不安全行为的重要策略。In order to reduce the unsafe behaviors of pilots,the fishbone diagram is used to analyze the influencing factors of pilot unsafe behaviors,the intervention strategies of pilot unsafe behaviors are proposed,and the system dynamics model of pilot unsafe behavior intervention is established.Based on the port pilot survey data,the dynamic evolution of the pilot unsafe behaviors is simulated.The case calculation result shows that,during the implementation of intervention strategies,the unsafe level of behavior,psychology and physiology of pilots in the course of operation keeps a parabolic trend of increasing first and then decreasing.The safety values and the safety ability are promoted fastest and the intervention effects are the most significant.Improving the pilot safety values and the pilot safety ability is an important strategy for reducing the pilot unsafe behaviors.

关 键 词：引航员 不安全行为干预 系统动力学 仿真 

分 类 号：U675.98[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] U698[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]