创新型城市建设能够推动城市产业结构升级吗?——基于中国286个地级市的“准自然实验”  

Can the construction of innovative cities promote the upgrading of urban industrial structure?——“Quasi-natural experiment”based on 286 prefecture level cities in China

作　　者：马子红[1] 张夏 MA Zi-hong;ZHANG Xia(School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,昆明650091

出　　处：《天津商业大学学报》2021年第2期3-14,共12页Journal of Tianjin University of Commerce

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“产业转移促进西部地区产业升级的机理分析”(10CJL044);云南大学国家社会科学基金培育项目(18YNUGSP042);云南大学一流大学建设区域合作理论创新高地项目(C176240103)。

摘　　要：以创新型城市建设为“准自然实验”,利用2007—2017年中国286个地级市的面板数据构建多期双重差分模型,探究创新型城市试点政策对产业结构升级的影响效应,同时从信贷支持、人力资本、技术创新和开放引领四个角度来检验政策效果在区域、城市规模和城市特征上的异质性。研究发现:考察期内,创新型城市试点政策显著促进了该城市产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化;创新型城市政策通过信贷支持、人力资本、技术创新和开放引领四个中介变量促进城市产业结构升级;创新型城市政策的产业结构升级效应存在地域差异性:东中西部地区创新型城市政策均促进了产业结构升级,但政策效果由东向西依次减弱;对于特大城市和大城市,创新型城市建设对其创新效率具有显著提升,而对于超大城市和中等城市,则影响较小,呈现出“倒U型”规律;信贷支持、人力资本、技术创新和开放引领水平越高的城市,创新型城市建设推动产业结构高级化和合理化的影响力度越大。Taking the construction of innovative cities as a“quasi-natural experiment”,this paper uses the panel data of 286 prefecture level cities in China from 2007 to 2017 to build a multi-period DID model,and explores the pilot po-licy effect of innovative city on the upgrading of industrial structure.At the same time,it tests the policy effect on the heterogeneity of region,urban scale and urban characteristics from four perspectives of credit support,human capital,technological innovation and opening-up and leading.The study finds that during the investigation period,the pilot po-licy of innovative city has significantly promoted the upgrading and rationalization of urban industrial structure,and the innovative city policy promotes the upgrading of urban industrial structure through four intermediary variables of credit support,human capital,technological innovation and opening-up and leading.There are regional differences in the innovative city policy effect on industrial structure upgrading:the industrial structure upgrading is promoted by the innovative city policies in the eastern,central and western regions,but the policy effects are weakened successively from east to west.As far as megalopolises and large cities are concerned,innovative city construction can significantly improve the innovation efficiency while for megacities and medium-sized cities,it has smaller effect,presenting an“inverted U-shaped”rule.The higher the levels of credit support,human capital,technological innovation and opening-up and leading are,the greater the effects of innovative city construction on the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure are.

关 键 词：创新型城市 产业结构 双重差分模型 中介效应 异质性 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]