农业保险可以减轻自然灾害对农业经济的负面影响吗?  

Does Agricultural Insurance Mitigate the Negative Impact of Natural Disaster on the Agricultural Economy?

作　　者：丁宇刚 孙祁祥[1] DING Yugang;SUN Qixiang(School of Economics, Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2021年第2期43-49,共7页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD042);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(14JZD027)。

摘　　要：建立融合自然灾害、农业保险以及道德风险的动态模型。模型显示:自然灾害会降低农业产出,而农业保险可以降低自然灾害对农业生产的负面影响,但前提是道德风险的影响较小。实证表明,每增加1元农业保险保费对应的保障水平,可以降低由自然灾害导致的第一产业产出约8.19元的损失。同时,未发现农业保险市场在省级加总层面存在显著的道德风险。This paper develops a dynamic model that integrates agricultural natural hazard,agricultural insurance,and moral hazard.The model shows that natural disaster reduces agricultural output,and that agricultural insurance is effective in reducing the negative impact of natural disaster on agricultural production only when the impact of moral hazard is small.The empirical results show that increase of agricultural insurance coverage from 1 RMB premium income can reduce the loss of primary industry output caused by natural disaster by about 8.19 RMB.Meanwhile,this paper does not find any significant moral hazard in the agricultural insurance market at aggregated provincial level,which is consistent with the prediction of the model.

关 键 词：自然灾害 农业保险 道德风险 农业经济 

分 类 号：F323.9[经济管理—产业经济] F840.66