油气资源评价中石油运聚系数的量化分析与预测模型  

Quantitative analysis and prediction model of oil migration and accumulation coefficient in hydrocarbon resources evaluation

作　　者：柳庄小雪 郑民[1] 于京都[1] 张蔚 易庆[1] LIU Zhuangxiaoxue;ZHENG Min;YU Jingdu;ZHANG Wei;YI Qing(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Haidian District,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《海相油气地质》2021年第1期35-42,共8页Marine Origin Petroleum Geology

基　　金：国家重点研发专项课题“超深层及中新元古界油气成藏富集规律与勘探方向”(编号:2017YFC0603106);国家科技重大专项课题“我国含油气盆地深层油气分布规律与资源评价”(编号:2017ZX05008-006);“‘十三五’全国油气资源评价-中石油矿权区油气资源评价”(编号:2017YQZYPJ0107)资助。

摘　　要：石油运聚系数是石油资源成因法评价中的关键参数。为确定我国主要含油气盆地的石油运聚系数取值,从而计算石油资源量,对我国6个盆地54个刻度区进行了解剖,采用构建目标函数的思路,分东部、西部地区建立多元非线性回归方程以构建预测模型,定量研究我国主要盆地石油运聚系数与地质主控因素之间的关系。结果显示:石油的运聚系数主要与烃源岩年龄、储层年龄、盖层以上不整合个数、供烃流线类型、源储年龄差绝对值和储源年龄比等地质参数有较大相关性。验证结果表明:利用多元非线性回归分析建立的统计模型预测效果较为理想,能够减少人为影响因素,可用于定量预测我国主要盆地的石油运聚系数。Oil migration and accumulation coefficient is a key parameter in the genetic evaluation of petroleum resources.In order to determine the value of migration and accumulation coefficient of main petroliferous basins in China,54 calibration plays of 6 basins in China were dissected,and a multiple nonlinear regression equation was established in the eastern and western regions to construct the prediction model,and the relationship between the oil migration and accumulation coefficient and the main geological control factors in China’s major basins was quantitatively studied.The results show that the migration and accumulation coefficient of oil is mainly related to the absolute value of age of source rock,reservoir age,the number of unconformities above the caprock,the type of hydrocarbon supply streamline,the absolute value of age difference between source rock and reservoir,and the age ratio of reservoir to source rock.The results show that the statistical model established by multivariate nonlinear regression analysis has good prediction effect and can reduce human factors,which can be used to quantitatively predict the oil migration and accumulation coefficient of major basins in China.

关 键 词：运聚系数 多元非线性回归分析 预测模型 石油 资源评价 

分 类 号：TE122.1[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]