危机冲击下全球价值链嵌入对企业出口韧性的“双刃剑”效应  

The “Double-edged Sword” Effect of Embedding Location in GVC on Enterprise’s Export Resilience under Crisis

作　　者：姜帅帅 刘慧[2] JIANG Shuaishuai;LIU Hui(School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan Shandong 250100;School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan Shandong 250014)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100 [2]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2021年第1期1-17,共17页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“量化宽松政策退出对中国经济的风险溢出效应与对策研究”(71803098);山东省人文社会科学基金项目“新旧动能转换视角下高水平自贸区网络的构建路径及对策研究”(20DGJJ01);山东省自然科学基金青年项目“全球价值链视角下增加值贸易网络的创新驱动机制研究及优化路径选择”(ZR2020QG031)。

摘　　要：以2008年金融危机为背景,利用2008~2013年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关数据库的海量匹配数据,考察危机冲击下全球价值链嵌入位置对中国企业出口韧性的影响。研究发现:危机冲击下,全球价值链嵌入上游度对中国企业出口韧性发挥着"双刃剑"效应,嵌入上游度一方面会降低企业面对危机冲击时的风险抵御能力,另一方面却能加快企业的出口恢复速度;嵌入上游度的影响具有显著的异质性特征,其对外资企业、小规模企业及一般贸易企业出口韧性的影响较大;"长鞭效应"是全球价值链嵌入上游度对中国企业出口韧性产生影响的主要作用机制,换言之,位于价值链上游度的企业,其在危机前后的出口需求将面临较大幅度的变动,导致其呈现较大的出口下降幅度和较快的出口恢复速度。研究结论对于疫情冲击下,保持中国企业出口韧性,促进企业转危为机具有重要的现实意义。This paper takes the financial crisis in 2008 as the background and uses the massive matching data of the Chinese industrial enterprise database and China customs data from 2008 to 2013 to investigate the impact of the embedding position in global value chain( GVC) on the export resilience of Chinese enterprises. First,embedding upstream in GVC produces a "double-edged sword"effect on the export resilience of Chinese companies,on the one hand,embedding upstream will reduce the company’ s ability to withstand risks in the face of crisis,but on the other hand,it can accelerate the company’ s export recovery speed. Second,the impact of embedding upstream has a significantly heterogeneous feature,and is greater on the export resilience of foreign-funded enterprises,small-scale enterprises,and general trading enterprises. Third,the "Bullwhip Effect"is the main mechanism by which embedding upstream in GVC affects the export resilience of Chinese enterprises,in other words,the enterprises located upstream in the value chain will face large changes in their export demand before and after the crisis. As a result,it exhibits a larger export decline and a faster export recovery speed. The conclusion of this article has important and practical significance for maintaining the export resilience of Chinese enterprises and changing crisis into chances under the impact of the pandemic.

关 键 词：全球价值链嵌入 出口韧性 “长鞭效应” 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]