群体共识决策的研究进展与展望  

Consensus in Group Decision Making:Research Progress and Prospect

作　　者：张恒杰 王芳[1] 董庆兴[2] 巩在武 吴坚 吴志彬 许叶军 张震[7] 董玉成 ZHANG Heng-jie;WANG Fang;DONG Qing-xing;GONG Zai-wu;WU Jian;WU Zhi-bin;XU Ye-jun;ZHANG Zhen;DONG Yu-cheng(Hohai University,Nanjing 211100 China;Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079 China;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044 China;Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306 China;Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065 China;Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072 China;Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024 China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211100 [2]华中师范大学信息管理学院,武汉430079 [3]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,南京210044 [4]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海201306 [5]四川大学商学院,成都610065 [6]天津大学管理与经济学院,天津300072 [7]大连理工大学经济管理学院,大连116024

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报（社科版）》2021年第2期26-37,共12页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71801081,71971135,71971039,71871149).

摘　　要：【目的/意义】群体共识决策通过协调决策者观点之间的冲突,寻求各决策方广泛支持的群体方案,是群体决策领域的热点研究问题。对群体共识决策的研究进行系统地梳理并探讨其未来的研究方向,有助于促进群体共识决策研究的进一步发展。【设计/方法】首先,提炼一般的群体共识决策框架,并对不同环境下的群体共识决策范式进行综述和讨论。然后,分析群体共识决策的典型应用。最后,对现有研究进行评述与展望。【结论/发现】主要存在识别–方向和优化两种共识规则。基于这两种共识规则,国内外学者从不同的视角构建了传统和复杂决策环境下的群体共识决策模型,这些模型在失效模式分析、供应链管理、水资源管理和应急/灾害管理等领域都取得了良好的应用效果。此外,对决策者的行为进行深入研究并结合偏好学习等人工智能技术对群体共识决策进行优化设计将是非常有前景的研究方向。[Purpose/Significance]Consensus in group decision making,committed to finding solutions that every decision maker actively supports by managing the conflict of opinion,is a much-discussed research question in group decision making(GDM).To promote the development of the consensus in group decision making,it is necessary to provide a comprehensive review on the development of the consensus in group decision making and discussion on its future research direction.[Design/Methodology]In the first place,this paper presents the general framework of the consensus in group decision making and analyzes its research paradigm in different environments. Secondly, this paper analyzes some typical applications of consensus in group decision making.Finally, some current research reviews and perspectives are discussed. [Findings/Conclusions] This paper finds thatthere are two main consensus rules, namely identification rule and direction rule, optimization-based rule, andseveral consensus decision making models under traditional and complex decision-making environments areproposed based on the above two consensus rules. These models applied in failure model effectiveness analysis,supply chain management, water resource management, and emergency/disaster management have demonstrated agood result. Moreover, the in-depth study of decision makers’ behaviors and the optimal design of consensus ingroup decision making that incorporates artificial intelligence such as preferential learning is a very promisingresearch direction.

关 键 词：群体决策 共识过程 反馈机制 共识规则 优化模型 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]