基于Fisher最优分割法的龙滩水库汛期分期研究  

Study on Flood Season Staging in Longtan Reservoir Based on Fisher Optimal Dissection Method

作　　者：李东琴[1] 黄亚 易灵[2] 侯贵兵 李媛媛[2] LI Dongqin;HUANG Ya;YI Ling;HOU Guibing;LI Yuanyuan(Baoding Water Resources and Hydropower Surveying&Designing Institute,Baoding 071000,China;China Water Resources Pearl River Planning,Surveying&Designing Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510610,China)

机构地区：[1]保定市水利水电勘测设计院,河北保定071000 [2]中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广东广州510610

出　　处：《人民珠江》2021年第3期12-16,52,共6页Pearl River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508200);广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目(YCBZ2018023)。

摘　　要：以龙滩水库1960-2015年日降水和日径流数据为基础,选取4种权重赋值法进行Fisher最优分割法的汛期分期特征向量计算,并对龙滩水库汛期最优分期数进行分析。结果表明:以旬为汛期分期划分单位的情况下,各类权重系数对分期结果影响较小。基于Fisher最优分割法的龙滩水库汛期分期结果能够较好地反映流域汛期的暴雨洪水变化特点,汛期最优分期数为5期。最优分期结果将汛期分为汛前过渡期(4月上旬至下旬)、前汛期(5月上旬至中旬)、主汛期(5月中旬至7月中旬)、后汛期(7月下旬至9月上旬)、汛后过渡期(9月中旬至10月下旬)。Based on the daily data of precipitation and runoff over the Longtan reservoir from 1960 to 2015,this paper selects four weight assignment methods to calculate the feature vector of flood season stages based on Fisher optimal dissection method,and analyzes the number of optimal flood season stages of the reservoir.The results show that:When ten days are used as the unit of flood season staging,the weight coefficients have little influence on the result of flood season staging.The flood season staging results of the Longtan reservoir based on the Fisher optimal dissection method can better reflect the characteristics of rainstorms and flood in the flood season of the basin,and the optimal number of flood season stages is five.According to the optimal staging results,the flood season in the Longtan reservoir is divided into pre-flood transition period(April 1~April 30),pre-flood period(May 1~May 20),main flood period(May 21~July 20),post-flood period(July 21~September 10)and post-flood transition period(September 11~October 31).

关 键 词：汛期分期 权重系数 Fisher最优分割法 龙滩水库 

分 类 号：TV212[水利工程—水文学及水资源]