基于VAR模型的北京市西瓜市场的替代与整合  

Substitution and Integration of Beijing City Watermelon Market Based on VAR Model

作　　者：王瑜 刘超 胡宝贵[1] WANG Yu;LIU Chao;HU Baogui(Economics&Management School,Beijing University of Agriculture,Beijing 102206;College of Humanities and Development Studies,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100094)

机构地区：[1]北京农学院经济管理学院,北京102206 [2]中国农业大学人文与发展学院,北京100094

出　　处：《北方园艺》2021年第5期150-155,共6页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：北京市农业农村局团队建设专项资助项目(BAIC10-2020)。

摘　　要：西瓜是我国重要的鲜活农产品之一。利用北京市批发市场中香蕉、梨子、哈密瓜、菠萝4种典型水果的价格数据,建立向量自回归模型探究香蕉、梨子、哈密瓜、菠萝4种水果在水果市场对西瓜的替代作用和动态影响,进而分析各种水果对西瓜的替代效果与水果市场的整合效应。结果表明:在不考虑季节因素的影响时,哈密瓜、香蕉、梨子与西瓜之间存在着较强的替代关系,强弱依次为哈密瓜>香蕉>梨子,而菠萝对西瓜不具有明显的替代作用。当价格受到正向的外部冲击时,西瓜自身价格会上涨,以分担这种压力,哈密瓜、香蕉和梨子这些存在替代关系的水果对西瓜价格分担上涨压力的贡献率比没有替代关系的水果高。在推动北京市西瓜市场发展的同时也要顾全整体水果市场的大局,充分考虑到各种水果之间的相互影响的替代关系。Watermelon is one of the most important fresh agricultural products in China.Using the price data of the four typical fruits of banana,pear,cantaloupe and pineapple in the Beijing city wholesale market,a vector autoregressive model was established to explore the substitution and dynamic impact of the four fruits of banana,pear,cantaloupe and pineapple on watermelon in the fruit marketand,which used to analyze the substitution effect of various fruits on watermelon and the integration effect of fruit market.The results showed that there was a strong substitution relationship between cantaloupe,banana,pear and watermelon without considering the influence of seasonal factors.The order of strength was cantaloupe>banana>pear,while pineapple had no obvious substitution effect on watermelon.When the price was under positive external impact,the price of watermelon itself would rise to share the pressure.Cantaloupe,banana and pear,which had substitution relationship,contribute more to the pressure of watermelon price share than those without substitution relationship.In order to promote the development of watermelon market in Beijing city,the overall situation of the whole fruit market should also be taken into account,and the substitution relationship of various fruits should be fully considered.

关 键 词：VAR模型 西瓜 替代关系 水果市场 北京市 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]