平衡中美与以印对冲:俄对华战略新动向  

Balancing China and the United States and Hedging with India: New Trends in Russia’s Strategy towards China

作　　者：雷建锋[1] Lei Jianfeng

机构地区：[1]外交学院外交学与外事管理系

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2021年第1期43-73,共31页Russian Studies

基　　金：2020年外交学院智库研究项目“中俄国际政治安全秩序观之异同及其政策效应分析”(项目编号:3162020ZK05)的资助。

摘　　要：俄罗斯对华战略新动向,即在中美博弈加剧、中俄实力对比根本逆转之后俄对华外交的新态势。该战略动向表明俄希望以外交弥补实力不足,巩固和增强其在中俄关系中的主动性,拓展外交空间,与美国维护霸权地位的进攻型战略不同。其政策表现为在中美之间实施平衡外交,在保持中俄关系发展的同时尽力构建与美良性关系,既不与中结盟,也不联美制中;为弥补在中俄关系中的实力不足,以俄印关系对冲中俄关系,谋求在中俄印关系中的主导地位以增强战略能力,使其在中美俄关系中更加主动。本文首先分析界定平衡与对冲概念,建立分析框架;其次分析能反映出俄对华战略新动向的精英言论、体现俄对华战略新动向之外交行为及战略新动向产生的根源;最后在对俄罗斯平衡与对冲战略的政策效应评估的基础上,提出中国的因应之道。The new trend of Russia’s China strategy refers to Russia’s new diplomacy towards China amid growing Sino-U.S.rivalry and fundamentally reversed Sino-Russian power balance.The essence of this strategic trend lies in making up for its lack of strength with diplomacy,different from the U.S.offensive strategy to maintain its hegemony.In practice,it is manifested in the implementation of balanced diplomacy between China and the United States,maintaining Sino-Russian relations while trying to build a benign relationship with the United States,neither forming alliance with China nor with the United States.At the same time,in order to make up for its inadequate strength in terms of Sino-Russian relationship,Russia enhances its tie with India so as to hedge Sino-Russian relationship,seeking dominance in Sino-RussianIndian relationship and correspondingly gaining more strategic capabilities in Sino-US-Russian relations.This article first establishes an analytical framework by analyzing and defining the concepts of balancing and hedging.Secondly,it explores Russian elites’remarks and diplomatic behaviors which reflect Russia’s new strategic trends,in addition to its root causes.Finally,based on the evaluation of policy effects of Russia’s balancing and hedging strategic trend,China’s response is proposed accordingly.

关 键 词：中美俄关系 平衡与对冲战略 俄罗斯对华战略 俄印关系 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]