21世纪初两次国际抗议浪潮的关联与比较——兼论作为中介的吉尔吉斯斯坦“革命”  

Correlation and Comparison of Two International Protest Waves in the Early 21^(st) Century:also on Kyrgyzstan“Revolution”as an Intermediary

作　　者：周明[1,2] 李嘉伟 Zhou Ming;Li Jiawei

机构地区：[1]兰州大学中亚研究所 [2]兰州大学政治与国际关系学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2021年第1期74-111,共38页Russian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“‘颜色革命’的发生、扩散与应对研究”(项目批准号:19BGJ051)的阶段性成果;兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费(项目编号:2020jbkyjc001、2020jbkyjd003)的资助。

摘　　要：21世纪初的两次国际抗议浪潮——"颜色革命"与中东变局,彼此之间存在着隐秘的关联。对此,国内外学术界持有两种主要观点:其一是将二者统一纳入全球民主化浪潮进行考察,其二是集中分析公民社会在两次抗议浪潮中的联系与作用。然而,这两种观点存在忽视地区结构性条件和夸大公民社会视角的适用性等不足。实际上,还可以尝试从国家层面这种新的研究路径寻找关联。吉尔吉斯斯坦所具有的后苏联国家和伊斯兰国家两个身份,使该国可被视作两次抗议浪潮中"承前启后"的中介国家。吉尔吉斯斯坦21世纪初发生的两次政权更迭与两次国际抗议浪潮同时存在共性与差异,它既前接"颜色革命",又后联中东变局。在国家层次寻找中介的角度具有一定的启发意义,可以避免既有研究过于宏观或微观而造成的局限,进而为抗争政治的跨区域比较研究提供一种新的思路,同时通过对21世纪初两次国际抗议浪潮进行反思,有助于进一步认识抗议浪潮形成的条件。The two waves of international protest at the beginning of the 21^(st) century,namely,the"color revolution"and the Arab Spring,are secretly related to each other.In this regard,academic circles at home and abroad hold two main views:one is to integrate the two into the global wave of democratization,and the other is to focus on analyzing the relationship and role of civil society in these two waves of protest.However,these two views have disadvantages such as ignoring regional structural conditions and exaggerating the applicability of the civil society perspective.In fact,the correlation could also be observed from a new research path at the national level.Kyrgyzstan’s two identities,both as a post-Soviet country and an Islamic country,enabled it to be regarded as an intermediary country that"connected the past and the future"during these two waves of protest.The two regime changes which occurred in Kyrgyzstan at the beginning of the 21^(st) century and the two waves of international protest have similarities and differences.Kyrgyzstan both preceded the"Color Revolution"and followed the Arab Spring.It is of certain enlightening significance to look for an intermediary perspective at the national level,which helps to avoid the limitations caused by existing researches,either too macro or too micro,and then to provide a new way of thinking for the cross-regional comparative studies of resistance politics.Besides,it will also help to further understand conditions for the formation of protest waves by reflecting on these two international protest waves at the beginning of the 21^(st) century.

关 键 词：国际抗议浪潮 “颜色革命” 中东变局 比较区域研究 

分 类 号：D736.4[政治法律—政治学]