基于用户数据的空调负荷与气温关系研究  

Research on the relationship between air conditioning load and air temperature based on user data

作　　者：邹芹[1] 邓晨成 石莹 ZOU Qin;DENG Chencheng;SHI Ying(State Grid Wuhan Power Supply Company,Wuhan 430000 Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]国网武汉供电公司,湖北省武汉市430000

出　　处：《电力大数据》2021年第1期79-86,共8页Power Systems and Big Data

摘　　要：为有效管理高峰时段的空调负荷,配合政府部门做好电力需求侧管理工作提供理论依据。本文对2018年—2019年武汉市电网空调负荷与气温关系进行了全面的分析,利用回归分析方法进行了近两年空调负荷与日最值温度的相关性分析,给出了温度每改变1℃时空调负荷的变化幅度,着重分析了第二、三产业和居民中空调负荷与气温的关系。其中,首先提出了估计空调负荷的算法,并以基准负荷为基础来计算空调负荷,可以提高估计的可信度,并建立相应的数学模型来揭示气温对空调负荷的影响。通过上述研究得出相应结论:(1)空调负荷与气温相关性程度大小为城镇居民空调用电与温度相关性最高,第三产业其次,第二产业最低;(2)降温用电对温度的敏感性普遍高于采暖用电;(3)不同行业产业间的降温采暖负荷均存在较大差异,且具有不同的趋势特征。It provides theoretical basis for effective management of air-conditioning load during peak hours and coordination with government departments to do power demand side management well.In this paper,the 2018-2019 in wuhan city power grid made a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between air conditioning load and temperature,nearly two years the air conditioning load is studied by using regression analysis method with the relation analysis of the value of the temperature,temperature is given every change 1℃change range of air conditioning load,emphatically analyzes the air conditioning load in the second and third industry and residents's relationship with the temperature.Firstly,an algorithm is proposed to estimate the air conditioning load,and the air conditioning load is calculated based on the reference load,which can improve the reliability of the estimate,and the corresponding mathematical model is established to reveal the influence of air temperature on the air conditioning load.Based on the above research,the corresponding conclusions are drawn:(1)The degree of correlation between air conditioning load and air temperature is the highest for urban residents,followed by the tertiary industry and the secondary industry;(2)The sensitivity of cooling electricity to temperature is generally higher than heating electricity;(3)The cooling and heating loads in different industries are quite different and have different trend characteristics.

关 键 词：空调负荷 气温 聚类分析 相关性 用电特征 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]