黑龙江省耕地压力指数分析及趋势预测  

Analysis of arable land pressure index and its trend prediction of Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：金鑫[1,2] 李维刚 JIN Xin;LI Weigang(School of Economics and Management,Jiamusi University,Jiamusi Heilongjiang 154007,China;School of Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]佳木斯大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江佳木斯154007 [2]东北农业大学工程学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《东北农业大学学报》2021年第3期76-86,共11页Journal of Northeast Agricultural University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BJY152)。

摘　　要：黑龙江省作为我国粮食主产区,是维护国家粮食安全的“压舱石”,“藏粮于地”则是保障国家粮食安全的重要战略。为更好推进农业供给侧结构性改革和保护国家粮食安全,需要对黑龙江省耕地压力指数展开分析与趋势预测。文章借鉴贸易引力模型思想构建耕地外部压力指数模型,将耕地内外部压力指数模型结合,弥补传统耕地压力指数模型的不足,运用耕地综合压力指数分析黑龙江省2005~2018年耕地压力。结果表明,黑龙江省相比其他省份粮食外部获取能力较弱,耕地外部压力较大,期间耕地外部压力指数上升82.08%;随人口减少和耕地单产增加,耕地内部压力减小;受耕地内外部压力双重影响,耕地综合压力指数呈下降趋势。采用灰色GM(1,1)模型和残差序列修正后模型预测黑龙江省2019~2023年耕地压力。未来5年内黑龙江省耕地内部压力持续减弱、外部压力加大、综合压力仍呈下降趋势。建议利用综合压力减轻的缓冲期,合理安排休耕轮作,提升地力,实现“藏粮于地”并保障粮食安全。Heilongjiang Province,as the major grain-producing area of the country,was the"ballast stone"to maintain the national food security,and"food crop production strategy based on farmland management"was an important strategy to ensure the national food security.In order to better promote the agricultural supply-side structural reforms and protect the national food security,it was necessary to analyze and make trend prediction of the arable land pressure index of Heilongjiang Province.Based on the idea of trade gravity model,this paper constructed the arable land external pressure index model,and combined it with the arable land internal pressure index model to make up for the shortcomings of traditional arable land pressure index model,and used the comprehensive pressure index of arable land to analyze the arable land pressure during 2005-2018 in Heilongjiang Province.The calculation results shown that the ability of obtaining grain had weakened and the external pressure of arable land had become greater,which was increased by 82.08%during this period;the internal pressure of arable land had been decreasing with the decrease of population and the increase of grain yield per unit area;the comprehensive pressure index of arable land shown a downward trend under the dual influence of internal and external pressure.The grey GM(1,1)model and the model modified by residual sequence was used to predict the arable land pressure of Heilongjiang Province during 2019-2023.The predicted results showed that the internal pressure of arable land in Heilongjiang Province would continue to weaken,the external pressure would continue to increase,and the comprehensive pressure would continue to decline in the next five years.According to the above prediction,the buffer period of comprehensive pressure reduction should be used,reasonably the fallow and rotation should be arranged,and the land capacity should be improved,so as to realize"food crop production strategy based on farmland management"strategy and ensure nation food security.

关 键 词：黑龙江省 耕地压力 粮食安全 藏粮于地 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]