预期收益、住房购买与房产负债决策——基于中国城市家庭的微观证据  

Expected Return,Housing Purchase and Real Estate Debt Financing Decision--Based on the Micro Evidences of Chinese Urban Households

作　　者：李冠华 徐佳 LI Guan-hua;XU Jia

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学金融学院,北京100029

出　　处：《金融论坛》2021年第3期37-47,共11页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国家庭负债行为及其宏观影响分析:理论内涵、测度体系与风险传染”(72003029)。

摘　　要：本文运用中国家庭金融调查和城市房价数据,就预期收益对家庭房产负债决策的影响进行理论分析和实证检验。研究发现:(1)预期收益的增加不仅能显著提高家庭使用杠杆购房的概率,而且能显著提升家庭房贷杠杆率水平;(2)从自住房和投资房的角度来看,预期收益对投资房杠杆的使用和杠杆率水平影响更为显著;(3)异质性分析的结果显示预期收益增加主要刺激了来自银行渠道的住房贷款,并且对中等收入家庭、东部地区家庭的房贷杠杆率更为显著,而有适婚男性的家庭似乎减少了对预期收益的敏感度。Based on the data of the China Household Financial Survey and urban housing prices,the authors of this paper make a theoretical analysis and an empirical test on the impact of expected return on real estate debt financing deci-sion.It’s found that,(1)the rise in expected return can not only significantly increase the probability that households use leverage to purchase houses,but also significantly increase the level of housing loan leverage;(2)from the perspective of owner-occupied housing and investment housing,the expected return has a more significant impact on the leverage-using and leverage-level of investment housing;(3)the heterogeneous analysis shows that the rise in expected return mainly stimulates the housing loans frombanks,and this effect is more significant on the housing loan leverage of middle-income households and households in the eastern regions,while households with marriageable-man seem to be less sensitive to the expected return.

关 键 词：预期收益 房贷杠杆率 住房投资 房贷决策 

分 类 号：D14[政治法律—政治学] D12[政治法律—国际共产主义运动]