考虑光伏出力预测误差修正的储能优化配置方法  

ENERGY STORAGE OPTIMIZATION CONFIGURATION METHOD CONSIDERING CONDITIONAL FORECAST ERROR CORRECTION

作　　者：茆美琴[1] 洪嘉玲 张榴晨[1] Mao Meiqin;Hong Jialing;Zhang Liuchen(Research Center for Photovoltiac System Engineering of Education,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学,教育部光伏系统研究工程中心,合肥230009

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2021年第2期410-416,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51577047);安徽省科技厅国际合作项目(1604b0602015)。

摘　　要：首先,基于k均值聚类和Copula理论建立不同天气类型下光伏出力的条件预测误差分布模型,并利用该模型修正储能运行时序模拟算法中的光伏出力预测值;其次,以跟踪光伏电站计划出力为控制目标,并以光伏电站寿命周期内年均收益最大为经济性优化目标,综合考虑储能全寿命周期成本、偏离计划出力的惩罚成本和光伏电站收益,采用粒子群算法和时序模拟计算法搜索最优的储能配置方案。最后,以安徽某地额定容量为100 MW的光伏并网电站储能配置方案为例,对所提出的方法进行验证。仿真算例表明,考虑修正与不考虑修正的情况相比,光伏电站的经济性得到提高,所需储能的功率和容量减小。Firstly,based on k-means clustering and Copula theory,the conditional forecast error distribution model of the PV output power under different weather types is established,and the model is used to modify the forecast value of PV output power in the time series simulation algorithm.Secondly,taking the tracking planned output power of the PV power station as the control objective and taking the maximum annual average income in the life cycle of the PV power station as the optimization goal,considering the whole life cycle cost of energy storage,the penalty cost of deviating from the schedule and the profit of the PV power station,the particle swarm optimization and the time series simulation method are used to search the best configuration of the energy storage.Finally,taking the energy storage configuration scheme for a grid-connected PV power station with a rated capacity of 100 MW in Anhui Province as an example,the proposed method is validated.The simulation results show that the economy of the PV power station is improved and the power and the capacity of the energy storage are reduced when the modification is considered.

关 键 词：储能 光伏电站 优化配置 粒子群优化 条件预测误差修正 COPULA理论 时序模拟 

分 类 号：TM15[电气工程—电工理论与新技术]