基于机会成本的高速铁路客票动态定价模型  

Dynamic Pricing Model of High-speed Railway Based on Opportunity Cost

作　　者：崔立新[1] 侯强 CUI Lixin;HOU Qiang(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《铁道学报》2021年第3期9-17,共9页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFF0204100);北京市自然科学基金(9192018)。

摘　　要：以一个高速铁路车次的在线售票过程为研究对象,应用收益管理理论,考虑影响高速铁路收益的多种因素,并引入机会成本的概念,构建高速铁路客票动态定价模型。首先,分析高速铁路客票定价的影响因素,并界定机会成本;其次,以需求预测为支撑,考虑影响旅客行为的多种因素,并引入机会成本的概念,构建高速铁路动态定价模型。最后,通过比较动态定价情境和固定价格情境的收益情况,证明动态定价模型的优越性;并分析机会成本对整体收益和售票数量的影响,验证动态定价在价格调控、座位出售中的显著作用。动态定价通过价格调整提高座位的出售概率,并在保证座位出售的情况下提高整体收益。Focusing on the online ticketing process for a high-speed railway service,this paper applied the revenue management theory to construct a dynamic pricing model for high-speed railway with considering the variety of factors affecting the revenue of high-speed railway and introducing the concept of opportunity cost.Firstly,this paper analyzed the factors that influence the pricing of high-speed railway service and defined the concept of opportunity cost.Secondly,supported by forecast of demand,considering the variety of factors that influence passengers’behavior and introducing the concept of opportunity cost,this paper constructed the model of dynamic pricing for high-speed railway.Finally,the comparison of the revenue between the dynamic pricing and the fixed price scenarios proved the superiority of the dynamic pricing model.The impact of opportunity cost,train travel time,risk level and service quality on overall revenue and ticket sales was analyzed and the significant role of dynamic pricing in price control and seat sales was verified.Dynamic pricing,to a large extent,improves the probability for the sale of seats through price adjustments and increases the total revenue while ensuring the sale of seats.This research is expected to provide theoretical support for the decision making of related organizations.

关 键 词：高速铁路 收益管理 动态定价 需求预测 机会成本 

分 类 号：F224.12[经济管理—国民经济]