基于集对分析的不同分类方法对汛期分期的影响  

Influence of different classification methods on flood season division based on Set Pair Analysis

作　　者：虞慧[1,2] 刘星根 王姣 王永文[5] 彭圣军 胡强[1,2] YU Hui;LIU Xinggen;WANG Jiao;WANG Yongwen;PENG Shengjun;HU Qiang(Jiangxi Provincial Institute of Water Sciences,Nanchang 330029,China;Jiangxi Provincial Research Center on Hydraulic Structures,Nanchang 330029,China;School of Civil and Surveying&Mapping Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China;Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;School of Hydraulic and Ecological Engineering,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水利科学研究院,江西南昌330029 [2]江西省水工程安全工程技术中心,江西南昌330029 [3]江西理工大学土木与测绘工程学院,江西赣州341000 [4]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008 [5]南昌工程学院水利与生态工程学院,江西南昌330099

出　　处：《人民长江》2021年第3期9-15,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：江西省水利厅科技项目(KT201705,202022YBKT25)。

摘　　要：为揭示集对分析不同分类方法对汛期分期的影响程度和原因,以江西省信江七一水库为例,采用集对分析及合理性检验等方法,探讨了均值标准差法、距平百分率法等分类方法对集对分析联系度的影响。同时,对均值标准差法、距平百分率法中k阈值与p阈值的最优取值进行了探究。结果表明:①均值标准差法的最优k阈值为0.56~0.58,距平百分率法的最优p阈值为0.42~0.44;阈值大小通过影响分类区间范围进而影响符号量化和汛期分期结果。②经合理性检验,均值标准差法的最优分期结果与合理性检验的最优分期结果最为接近,而距平百分率法的最优分期结果与合理性检验的最优分期结果存在一定差异。因此,2种方法相比,均值标准差法更适用于集对分析。同时,建议今后在将集对分析应用于汛期分期时,应进行最优分类区间筛选和分期结果比较分析。In order to reveal influence degree of different classification methods on flood reason division by Set Pair Analysis,we adopted Set Pair Analysis and rationality testing methods to explore influence of common classification methods such as mean standard deviation method and anomaly percentage method on connection degree of Set Pair Analysis,based on Qiyi Reservoir in Xinjiang Basin of Jiangxi Province.Also,we explored optimal k-threshold of mean standard deviation method and optimal p-threshold of anomaly percentage method.The results showed that the optimal k-threshold of the mean standard deviation method was 0.56~0.58,and the optimal p-threshold of the anomaly percentage method was 0.42~0.44.The threshold value had an impact on symbol quantization and flood season division results through affecting the classification interval range.According to rationality test,the optimal division result of mean standard deviation method was the closest to that of the rationality test.However,the optimal division result of anomaly percentage method was different from that of rationality test.Therefore,the mean standard deviation method was more suitable for Set Pair Analysis.It is suggested that the selection of the optimal classification interval and the comparative analysis of the division results should be performed when the Set Pair Analysis is applied to the flood season division.

关 键 词：汛期分期 集对分析法 均值标准差法 距平百分率法 联系度 分类标准 阈值 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]