Assessing Market Competition in the Chinese Banking Industry Based on a Conjectural Variation Model  

作　　者：Xiangyi Zhou Zheng Pei Botao Qin 

机构地区：[1]Jinhe Center for Economic Research,Xi'an Jiaotong University,China [2]Antai College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Jiaotong University,China

出　　处：《China & World Economy》2021年第2期73-98,共26页中国与世界经济（英文版）

基　　金：the Chinese Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.SK2020053).

摘　　要：Most literature on market competition in the banking industry neglects to address strategic interaction among banks.This paper studies interaction among Chinese banks by dividing banks into two groups:dominant banks(the"Big 5f,state-owned banks)and small-and medium-sized banks(joint-stock banks and large city commercial banks).We test an oligopolistic model with conjectural variation developed by Spiller and Favaro(1984).Using data from 2007 to 2016,we find that banking competition is not in the form of Stackelberg competition per se.Some strategic interactions exist between small-and medium-sized banks and the largest state-owned bank.We also study the effect of interest rate deregulation on oligopolies'strategic interactions.Our results show that interest rate deregulation stimulates banking competition by reducing collusiveness among the dominant state-owned banks and enhancing the market power of small and medium banks.

关 键 词：banking industry conjectural variation interest rate deregulation market structure 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]