基于混合Logit模型的旅客对短途高速铁路列车选择行为  

Passenger Choice Behaviors for Short-Haul HSR Trains Based on Mixed Logit Model

作　　者：程谦[1] 杨光 胡启洲[3] CHENG Qian;YANG Guang;HU Qizhou(School of Transportation and Management,Nanjing Institute of Railway Technology,Nanjing Jiangsu 210031,China;Shanghai Passenger Transport Depot,China Railway Shanghai Bureau Group Corporation,Shanghai 200071,China;School of Automation,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing Jiangsu 210094,China)

机构地区：[1]南京铁道职业技术学院运输管理学院,江苏南京210031 [2]中国铁路上海局集团公司上海客运段,上海200071 [3]南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《中国铁道科学》2021年第2期183-192,共10页China Railway Science

基　　金：江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2020SJZDA136);中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2017X009-M);教育部高铁安全协同创新中心2019年开放基金资助项目(GTAQ2019003)。

摘　　要：以南京到上海和南京到杭州的短途高速铁路客流为背景,应用行为调查法与意向调查法开展客流调查,获取客流数据。基于选择行为理论,以旅客对列车的选择作为因变量,旅客个体特征、出行特征、列车服务水平作为自变量,基于多项式Logit模型构建混合Logit模型,拟合客流调查数据。结果表明:混合Logit模型的拟合优度高于多项式Logit模型;出发时间是影响旅客选择行为的关键因素,77%的旅客偏好选择6:00—7:00出发列车,仅有10%的旅客偏好选择20:00—21:00出发列车;列车旅行时间、票价水平与旅客对列车的选择行为负相关;女性、50岁以上、学生、低收入、自费购票等类的旅客对票价敏感度较高;公务人员及企业职员偏好选择8:00—11:00开行的列车,休闲出行旅客偏好选择8:00—11:00及14:00—17:00开行的列车;行前接驳选择自驾换乘的旅客,偏好选择5:00—8:00开行的列车;旅客对6:00-10:00开行列车的支付意愿最高,对17:00—22:00开行列车的支付意愿最低。Based on the passenger flow of short-haul HSR from Nanjing to Shanghai and from Nanjing to Hangzhou,the behavior survey method and intention survey method were adopted to conduct passenger flow survey and obtain passenger flow data.According to the theory of choice behavior,taking the passenger’s choice of train as the dependent variable,the individual characteristics of passengers,travel characteristics and the train service level as the independent variables,a mixed Logit model was constructed based on the multinomial Logit model to fit the passenger flow survey data.Results show that the goodness-of-fit of the mixed Logit model is higher than that of multinomial Logit model.The departure time is the key factor influencing passenger choice behavior.77%of passengers prefer to choose trains depart from 6:00 to 7:00,and only 10%prefer to choose trains depart from 20:00 to 21:00.Travel time and ticket price are negatively correlated with passenger’s choice behavior of train.Female,over 50 years old,students,low-income,selfpaid passengers are more sensitive to ticket price.Civil servants and business staff prefer to choose trains depart from 8:00 to 11:00,while leisure travel passengers prefer to choose trains depart from 8:00 to 11:00 and from 14:00 to 17:00.Passengers who choose self-driving connection mode before travelling prefer to choose trains departing in the time range of 5:00—8:00.In respect to different departure times,passengers have the highest willingness to pay for trains during the time range of 6:00—10:00 and the lowest willingness to pay for trains during the time range of 17:00—22:00.

关 键 词：短途高速铁路客流 交通出行选择 旅客偏好 混合Logit模型 多项式Logit模型 

分 类 号：U293.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]