基于土地利用的淮海经济区碳储量估算与预测  

Estimation and prediction of carbon storage based on land use in the Huaihai Economic Zone

作　　者：解天琪 李龙[2,3] 陈鑫 周翼 张国梁 陈龙乾 XIE Tianqi;LI Long;CHEN Xin;ZHOU Yi;ZHANG Guoliang;CHEN Longqian(College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;School of Public Policy and Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;Department of Geography,Vrije Universiteit Brussel,Brussels 1050,Belgium)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100193 [2]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏徐州221116 [3]荷语布鲁塞尔自由大学地理系,比利时布鲁塞尔1050

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2021年第1期131-142,共12页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0606303);国家自然科学基金项目(42001212)。

摘　　要：以淮海经济区为研究对象,搜集该区域遥感、社会经济等多源数据,进行了2006、2011、2017年3期土地利用专题图制图,并运用CA-Markov模型对研究区2025年土地利用情况进行模拟,同时依据碳密度对研究区碳储量进行估算和预测。结果表明:(1)研究期间耕地所占比例较大但非农化趋势明显,建设用地不断扩张,其他用地面积不断减少,其余地类面积总体上呈递增趋势。(2)利用CA-Markov模型模拟2017年淮海经济区土地利用除了其他用地之外,各地类面积预测误差均小于5%,精度较高;(3)2006、2011、2017年碳储量分别为1 720.018、1 720.020、1 716.531Tg,预计到2025年碳储量会达到1 720.726Tg,较2017年增加4.195Tg,碳储量变化总体上呈现集聚特征,其减少区域成片分布但其减少量较小,增加区域分布零散但增加量较大。因此,应在切实保护耕地的基础上,有序开展退耕还林,保护林地资源,既保证了粮食安全又有利于提高研究区生态环境质量。By taking the Huaihai Economic Zone as research object,the remote sensing,socio-economic and other multi-source data in this region were collected,and land use thematic mappings of 2006,2011 and 2017 were conducted.A CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land use situation in the study area in 2025.In the meantime,the carbon storage in the research area was estimated and predicted according to the carbon density.The results showed that:(1)The proportion of cultivated land for relatively large during the study period,but its trend of non-agricultural was obvious.The construction land continued to expand,meanwhile other land areas continued to decrease.The area of other land types showed an overall increasing trend;(2)Simulation the land use by the CAMarkov model in the Huaihai Economic Zone in 2025 achieved good results.Except for the other land type,the prediction errors for each land type area were less than 5%;(3)The carbon stocks in 2006,2011,and 2017 were1 720.018,1 720.020 and 1 716.531 Tg,respectively.The carbon storage in 2025 is expected to reach 1 720.726 Tg,which is increase by 4.195 Tg compared with that in 2017.The change of carbon storage generally presented agglomeration characteristics.The reduced area was continuously distributed but the area decrease was small and the increased area was sporadic but large.In conclusion,on the basis of effective protection of cultivated land,the conversion of cropland to forest and forest land resources protection should be proceeded in an orderly manner,which not only ensures food security but also improves the ecological environment quality of the study area.

关 键 词：淮海经济区 土地利用 CA-Markov 碳密度 碳储量 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]