1981—2015年呼和浩特市霜期时空分布特征及初霜日客观预报方法  

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Frost Period and Objective Forecast Method of The First Frost Day in Hohhot From 1981 to 2015

作　　者：张志杰 Zhang Zhijie(Hohhot Meteorological Observatory,Inner Mongolia Hohhot 010020)

机构地区：[1]呼和浩特市气象局,内蒙古呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2020年第4期3-6,共4页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

摘　　要：利用1981—2015年呼和浩特市6个气象站霜期的观测资料,采用线性倾向法,分析了呼和浩特市霜期的时空变化特征。依据呼和浩特市6个气象站初霜日特征,应用聚类分析中最短距离法把全市分成2个预报区;每个预报区选取有代表性的站点,选取对初霜日有影响的气象因子和大气环流因子,应用多元回归方法建立每个预报区的初霜日预报方程。通过回代检验和试报检验,所建立的初霜日预报方程预报结果与实况较接近。Based on the observation data of six meteorological stations in Hohhot from 1981 to 2015,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the frost period in Hohhot were analyzed by using the linear tendency method.Hohhot area was divided into two forecast areas by using the shortest distance method in cluster analysis according to the characteristics of the first frost day of six stations.In each forecast area,select the meteorological factors and atmospheric circulation factors that affect the first frost day,and apply the multiple regression method to establish the first frost day forecast equation for each forecast area.The forecast results of the first frost day forecast equations were close to the actual situation through the back generation test and trial report test.

关 键 词：霜期 时空分布 初霜日 预报 

分 类 号：P423.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]