人口老龄化、技术进步与经济增长——基于PSTR模型的研究  

Population aging,technological progress and economic growth:A research based on the PSTR model

作　　者：贺俊[1] 张钺 唐述毅[1] HE Jun;ZHANG Yue;TANG Shuyi(School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥230026

出　　处：《中国科学技术大学学报》2020年第2期208-219,共12页JUSTC

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71573240)资助.

摘　　要：利用一个包含研发(R&D)部门的内生增长框架,构建出人口老龄化和技术进步作用于经济增长的理论模型,数值模拟的结果表明:老龄化对经济增长产生非线性的抑制效应.针对中国2005~2015年省级面板数据,采用面板平滑转移回归(PSTR)模型反映老龄化对经济增长的动态影响.实证结果表明:以技术进步作为转换变量,老龄化率对经济增长率的负向影响随技术进步水平的提高发生平滑转移,表现为逐渐减弱的抑制作用;为了提高结论的稳健性,采用老年抚养比作为老龄化率的替代变量,稳健性检验结果仍支持基准检验结论;为消除经济增长和人口老龄化双向因果关系的影响,构建联立方程模型再次进行检验,检验结果与PSTR模型结果相一致.Using an endogenous growth framework containing the R&D sector,a theoretical model of population aging and technological progress acting on economic growth was constructed.The results of numerical simulation show that aging has a non-linear inhibitory effect on economic growth.Aiming at reflecting the dynamic influence of aging on economic growth,provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2015 was used to carry out empirical tests with panel smooth transition regression(PSTR)model.The results show that with technological progress as a conversion variable,the negative impact of aging rate on economic growth is smoothed with the improvement of technological progress level,which is characterized as a gradual weakening of nonlinear inhibition.In order to improve the robustness of the conclusion,the elderly dependency ratio was taken as an alternative variable of the aging rate,the robustness test still supports the benchmark test results.In order to eliminate the effect of bidirectional causality between economic growth and population aging,the joint equation model was constructed and the test results are consistent with those of the PSTR model.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 技术进步 经济增长 PSTR模型 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]