金属矿山项目投资决策的系统动力学建模与仿真  

System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Investment Decision Making in Metal Mime Projects

作　　者：刘迪 陈连韫 陈勇 李国清[1] 胡乃联[1] 修国林[1,3] LIU Di;CHEN Lianyun;CHEN Yong;LI Guoqing;HU Nailian;XIU Guolin(School of Civil and Resource Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;China Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100044,China;Shandong Gold Group Co.,Ltd,Jinan,Shandong 250013,China;The Fourth Research and Design Engineering Corporation,CNNC,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与资源工程学院,北京100083 [2]五矿有色金属股份有限公司,北京100044 [3]山东黄金集团有限公司,山东济南250013 [4]中核第四研究设计工程有限公司,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2021年第3期164-170,共7页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0604400);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2302018FRF-BR-18-003A).

摘　　要：针对金属矿山项目投资决策具有系统性、复杂性、反馈性和动态不确定性的特点,在传统净现值法的基础上,以系统动力学理论为指导,开展金属矿山项目投资决策研究。以确定合理系统边界为基础,通过因果关系分析构建系统流图,并确定系统动力学基本方程,实现金属矿山项目投资决策的复杂系统建模。以在赞比亚投资的某铜矿为实例,基于Vensim软件完成系统动力学模型的动态仿真,并对项目投资净现值进行预测和敏感性分析,得出了该项目经济可行的结论。研究表明,所构建的系统动力学仿真模型真实可靠,具有可操作性和推广应用价值,为金属矿山项目投资决策提供了一种新的思路和方法。In the view of characteristics of systematicness,complexity,feedback,and dynamic uncertainty in investment decision-making of metal mine projects,based on the traditional net present value method,the investment decision making of metal mine projects was studied under the guidance of system dynamics theory.On the basis of determining the reasonable system boundary,system flow diagram was constructed through causal analysis,and the basic equations of system dynamics were determined to realize the complex system modeling of investment decision making of metal mine projects.Taking a copper mine invested in Zambia as an application example,the dynamic simulation of the model was completed by Vensim software.And the prediction and sensitivity analysis of the net present value in this project were carried out.It was concluded that the project was economically feasible.The study shows that the system dynamics simulation model presented in this paper is real and reliable,which has operability and promotion value and can provide a new idea and method for investment decision making of metal mine projects.

关 键 词：金属矿山 投资决策 系统动力学 Vensim仿真 净现值 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]