上市公司行业间会计盈余差异与宏观经济增长预测  

Across-industry Accounting Earnings Dispersion and the Forecast of Macroeconomic Growth

作　　者：罗宏[1] 陈坤 曾永良 Luo Hong

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学会计学院,611130 [2]湖南大学工商管理学院,410012

出　　处：《会计研究》2020年第11期16-32,共17页Accounting Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“会计信息在宏观经济分析与预测中的应用价值及其实现方式研究”(16AJY004);国家自然科学基金青年项目“管理层情绪、企业投资行为与宏观经济预测”(72002069)的资助。

摘　　要：行业间盈余差异作为盈余分布的重要特征,传递了行业盈余不确定的信息,进而对实体经济产出具有重要影响。本文重点考察基于上市公司会计盈余信息计算的行业间会计盈余差异所传递的未来宏观经济增长信息。研究发现,上市公司行业间盈余差异与未来三季度GDP增长率显著负相关,说明上市公司行业间会计盈余差异包含了宏观经济波动的信息,具有宏观预测价值,且这一预测效应在不同经济下行压力下存在差异。具体来说,相比于经济下行压力较小时期,上市公司行业间盈余差异在经济下行压力较大时期对经济增长的预测能力更强。机制检验发现,上市公司行业间盈余差异通过投资和消费两条路径影响未来宏观经济增长,并且投资路径的作用更为显著。论文对于准确预测宏观经济增长,以及打破行业垄断,畅通国内大循环具有重要启示。As an important feature of aggregate earnings distribution,across-industry earnings growth dispersion conveys information of industry-level earnings uncertainty,which in turn has an important impact on real economic activity.This paper examines the macro predictability of the across-industry earnings dispersion calculated by firm-level accounting information in China’s listed companies.Our study shows the significantly negative relationship between across-industry earnings dispersion and future nominal GDP growth,which suggests that across-sectional earnings dispersion is informative about future GDP growth.In addition,this prediction effect is different under different economic downward pressure.Specifically,compared with period when the economic downward pressure is weak,across-sectional earnings dispersion of listed companies has stronger ability to predict economic growth when the economic downward pressure is strong.Further research finds that both investment and consumption are key paths when using the across-industry earnings dispersion to forecast economic growth,and investment plays a more important role.This paper has important enlightenment for accurately forecasting macroeconomic growth,breaking industry monopoly,narrowing industry gap and unblocking domestic circulation.

关 键 词：行业间盈余差异 经济增长 投资变动 消费变动 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F275F124