塞瑞替尼治疗ALK阳性的非小细胞肺癌的预算影响分析  

Budget Impact Analysis on Using Ceritinib for the Treatment of ALK-positive Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

作　　者：李雪 李睿 李美萱 王耀羚 杨克虎[2,3] 赵琨 LI Xue;LI Rui;LI Mei-xuan(China National Health Development Research Center,Beijing,100044,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]国家卫生健康委卫生发展研究中心,北京100044 [2]兰州大学公共卫生学院循证社会科学研究中心,兰州730000 [3]兰州大学基础医学院循证医学中心,兰州730000

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2021年第3期84-88,共5页Chinese Health Economics

摘　　要：目的:从医保基金的角度出发,预测将塞瑞替尼纳入国家基本医保药品目录后,作为一二线用药治疗ALK阳性的局部晚期或转移性非小细胞肺癌在未来1—3年内对医保基金可能产生的影响,以期为医疗保险部门提供决策依据。方法:通过构建预算影响分析模型,以2020年数据为基线年,分析塞瑞替尼纳入医保之后对医保支出的影响;进行单因素敏感性分析,探索结果的稳定性。结果:如果塞瑞替尼纳入医保目录,医保基金增量有限,预计3年累积增加医保支出6970.0万元,医保基金支出增加主要来自医保药费支出,约占医保基金总支出增量的89.66%。敏感性分析显示,肺癌发病率、死亡率、塞瑞替尼和阿来替尼的单价对结果影响较大。结论:将塞瑞替尼纳入医保药品目录将有限增加医保基金支出。Ubjective:To estimate the potential budget impact of ceritinib in the first-fine and second-line treatment of ALk-positive locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer from the perspective of the basic medical insurance in China in 1~3 years,so as to provide evidence for medical insurance decision maker.Methods:Using the data of 2020 as the baseline year,a budget impact analysis model is constructed to estimate the impact of ceritinib on medical insurance expenditures after ceritinib is introduced in medical insurance list.The single factor sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the stability of the results.Results:If ceritinib could be reimbursed in 2020,the increase in total medical insurance expenditure should be limited.It is estimated that the total medical insurance expenditure will be increased by 69.70 million yuan in three years,and the key driver for the increased medical insurance expenditure should be the cost on drugs,accounting for approximately 89.66%of the total expenditure increase on medical insurance system.Sensitivity analysis shows that the incidence and mortality of lung cancer,and the prices of ceritinib and alectinib have a greater impact on the results of the analysis.Conclusion:Reimbursement of ceritinib will lead to limited increase in the total expenditures of medical insurance.

关 键 词：塞瑞替尼 克唑替尼 阿来替尼 非小细胞肺癌 预算影响分析 

分 类 号：R1-9[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] R956