疫情冲击的多维经济效应与政策调控机制——基于“双支柱”政策协调视角的重新审视  

The Multi-dimensional Economic Effects and Policy Regulation Mechanism of the Epidemic Shock—A Re-examination Based on the“Two Pillars”Policy Coordination Perspective

作　　者：李天宇[1,2] 张屹山 Li Tianyu;Zhang Yishan(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Business School,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2021年第1期1-19,共19页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“宏观审慎监管与货币政策协调机制研究”(19CJL011)的资助。

摘　　要：目前,随着新冠肺炎疫情在全球范围内持续扩散,它的影响已逐渐超出了传染病本身,并逐渐渗透至经济金融领域,给全球经济发展带来重创。有鉴于此,本文以疫情的多维经济效应为着眼点,引入家庭需求冲击、企业供给冲击和金融摩擦冲击来全面刻画疫情对实体经济的结构性影响。本文的主要结论如下:第一,本次疫情冲击是一次典型的由实体经济传导至金融体系的复合冲击,因此牢牢把握实体经济复苏进程才是平抑此次经济波动的核心要务;第二,就疫情冲击的本质属性而言,它具有典型的“强供给、弱需求”式冲击效应,这意味着在疫情防控常态化时期,供给侧的有序回暖才是政策调控的关键;第三,从疫情防控常态化时期的经济政策组合范式来看,宏观审慎政策与货币政策“双支柱”模式能够产生最大的政策收益,这说明在平抑疫情波动时要兼顾宏观经济稳增长与金融系统防风险;第四,疫情涟漪效应已经开始逐渐凸显,这意味着中国将有很大概率领先于世界复苏,同时也将为中国展现大国担当提供重要的战略机遇和实力保障。Nowadays,with the continuous spread of the 2019-nCoV,its impact has gradually exceeded the infectious disease itself,and gradually penetrated into the economic and financial fields,bringing huge damage to the global economics.Therefore,this article focuses on the multi-dimensional economic effects of the epidemic,and introduces supply shocks,demand shocks as well as financial friction to fully characterize the structural impact of the epidemic on the real economy.The main conclusions are as follows:First,this round of epidemic is a typical compound shock transmitted from the real economy to the financial system so that firmly grasping the recovery of the real economy is the core task of stabilizing the current round of economic fluctuations.Second,in terms of the essential attributes of the epidemic shock,it has a typical“strong supply and weak demand”shock effect,which means that in the period of normalization of epidemic prevention and control,the orderly recovery of the supply side is the key to policy regulation.Third,from the perspective of economic and policy portfolio,the“Two Pillars”model of macro-prudential and monetary policy can generate the greatest policy benefits,which indicates that when dealing with fluctuations during epidemic periods,it is necessary to balance the steady growth of the macro-economy and the risk prevention of the financial system.Fourth,considering the ripple effect of the epidemic has gradually emerged,China may own a high probability of leading the world recovery,and it will also provide China with important strategic opportunities and strength guarantees for showing responsibility of great power.

关 键 词：疫情复合冲击 DSGE模型 “双支柱”政策调控 福利损失 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]