德尔菲法构建学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系  

Development of the evaluation indicator system for quality control and early warning effect of syndromic surveillance of infectious diseases in students by Delphi method

作　　者：张松杰[1] 李骏[1] 马倩倩[1] 毋丹丹[1] ZHANG Song-jie;LI Jun;MA Qian-qian;WU Dan-dan(Xi'an Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安市疾病预防控制中心,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2021年第4期506-509,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：西安市卫生科研项目(J2014041,J201601012)。

摘　　要：目的构建学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系,为指导学生传染病症状监测预警工作提供科学依据。方法在文献查阅基础上,通过两轮德尔菲法专家咨询筛选学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标,并通过层次分析法和专家评分法确立指标权重,构建指标体系。结果32位专家两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为87.5%(28/32)和100.0%(28/28),专家平均权威系数(Cr)为0.792,第二轮咨询专家协调系数为0.245(χ^(2)=459.416,P<0.001),经指标筛选,形成由6项一级指标、19项二级指标和43项三级指标构成的学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系。6项一级指标权重从高到低依次为信息质量(0.2281)、学校管理(0.2123)、疾控管理(0.1927)、预警信息管理(0.1450)、系统维护(0.1112)和预警效果评价(0.1108)。结论本研究建立了学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系,本体系专家积极程度和权威程度较高,意见趋于一致,可为国内学生传染病症状监测工作提供参考。Objective To construct the evaluation indicator system for quality control and early warning effect of syndromic surveillance of infectious diseases in students,and to provide a scientific basis for guiding syndromic surveillance of infectious diseases among students.Methods On the basis of literature review,two rounds of Delphi-based expert consultations were conducted to determine the evaluation indicators for quality control and early warning effect of syndromic surveillance of infectious diseases in students.The indicator weights were determined by the analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring method,and the indicator system was established.Results After two rounds of consultations with 32 experts,the experts’positive coefficients were 87.5%(28/32)and 100.0%(28/28),respectively.The mean of authoritative coefficients(Cr)of the experts was 0.792.The Kendall’s concordance coefficient of the second round of consulting experts was 0.245(χ^(2)=459.416,P<0.001).Through the screening of indicators,the final indicator system was composed of 6 primary indicators,19 secondary indicators and 43 tertiary indicators.The weights of the six primary indicators from high to low were information quality(0.2281),school management(0.2123),management for department of disease prevention and control(0.1927),management for early warning information(0.1450),system maintenance(0.1112)and evaluation of early warning effect(0.1108).Conclusions We establish the evaluation indicator system for quality control and early warning effect of syndromic surveillance of infectious diseases in students in this study.The enthusiasm and authority of the experts of the indicator system are high,and their opinions are coordinated.It can provide references for the work regarding syndromic surveillance of infectious diseases among domestic students.

关 键 词：德尔菲法 传染病 症状监测 质量控制 效果评价 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]