中国降低进口关税的经济效益评估  

Evaluation of Economic Benefits of China’s Import Tariff Reduction

作　　者：朱启荣[1] 杨琳[1] 王瑜 Zhu Qirong;Yang Lin;Wang Yu

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2021年第2期19-32,M0002,共15页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“利用工业品外贸减少我国工业废气与废水排放研究”(项目编号:17BJY068);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“USMCA国际经贸规则解读及对中国影响的研究”(项目编号:20FJLB010)。

摘　　要：文章对中国与美国、德国、日本、韩国、墨西哥、印度、泰国的进口关税水平和结构进行比较,模拟分析了中国降低进口关税对国内经济的影响,得到以下结论:中国工业品进口关税总体水平不但远高于美国、日本和德国,而且明显高于韩国、墨西哥、泰国与印度;此外,中国农产品高关税的涉及面不但远超美国和德国,也明显超过泰国、墨西哥、日本、韩国和印度;中国大范围地降低进口关税不但有助于提高国内居民的收入、消费、社会福利、资本收益率和产出水平,还能够降低中国物价水平与外贸顺差,而且进口关税削减的幅度越大,中国获得的上述经济效益也越多;如果中国在降低进口关税的同时促进技术进步,不但能够更多地获得上述利益,而且能够减少甚至可以消除关税减让对中国经济增长和贸易条件的不利影响。This paper firstly conducted a comparative research on the level and structure of import tariffs between China and several other countries,including the United States,Germany,Japan,South Korea,Mexico,India and Thailand. The paper also conducted a simulation analysis on the potential impacts of China’ s reduction of import tariffs on domestic economy. Firstly,we found that China’s overall level of import tariffs on industrial products is not only much higher than the United States,Japan,and Germany,but also significantly higher than that of South Korea,Mexico,Thailand,and India. In addition,The categories of high-tariff agricultural products in China are much more diverse than any countries in this research. China’s extensive reduction of import tariffs will not only increase income and consumption of domestic residents,social welfare,return on capital and output,but also can reduce China’s price level and trade surplus. A greater reduction in import tariffs would lead to a larger economic benefits. If China can promote technological progress while reducing import tariffs,such influence would mitigate the negative impact on China’s economic growth from the tariff reduction.

关 键 词：降低关税 经济效益 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F752.5[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.61[经济管理—产业经济]