技术进步、全球价值链与贸易开放:来自双边国家制造业的经验证据  

Technological Progress,Global Value Chains and Trade Openness:Empirical Evidence from Manufacturing in Bilateral Countries

作　　者：杨晓亮 耿伟[1] Yang Xiaoliang;Geng Wei

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2021年第2期33-48,M0002,共17页World Economy Studies

基　　金：天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划(项目编号:TD13-5063);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“制造业投入服务化对中国制造业出口绩效的影响机制及对策研究”(项目编号:18YJC790168)资助。

摘　　要：基于扩展的Blanchard等(2016)模型,文章考察了技术进步对贸易开放的影响及作用机制。研究表明,一国技术进步将促进其扩大贸易开放,在全球价值链分工日益深化的背景下,"国内增加值效应"和"国外增加值效应"是一国技术进步促进其扩大贸易开放的两个重要影响渠道。在进行指标替换和使用工具变量法控制内生性后,文章结论依然稳健。异质性分析显示,技术进步显著地促进了发达国家之间以及资本密集型行业的贸易开放,但也加强了劳动密集型行业的贸易保护。非线性分析表明,一国技术进步对贸易开放的影响具有"先升后降"的"倒U型"特点,且样本期内绝大多数观察值位于拐点左侧。研究发现,中国技术进步显著地促进了其与发达国家之间以及资本密集型行业的贸易开放。Based on the extended Blanchard et al.( 2016) model,this paper investigates the impact of technological progress on trade opening and the mechanism. Theoretical research shows that a country’s technological progress will promote its expansion of trade openness. In the context of international specialization deepening in global value chain, " domestic value added effect" and " foreign value added effect" are the channels through which a country’s technological progress promotes its expansion of trade openness. Empirical analysis using manufacturing data from bilateral countries confirms these conclusions. By means of variable substitution and IV method,the conclusion is still robust. Furthermore,heterogeneity analysis shows that technological progress significantly promotes trade openness among developed countries and capital-intensive industries. Nonlinearity analysis shows that the influence of technological progress on trade opening has the " inverted U-shape" characteristic of " first rise and then fall",and most observed values in the sample period are to the left of the inflection point. In addition,based on sub-samples of Chinese and foreign industries,it is found that technological progress significantly promotes the openness of trade between China and developed countries as well as capital-intensive industries.

关 键 词：技术进步 全球价值链 贸易开放 关税有效保护率 增加值效应 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易] F414[经济管理—产业经济] F113.2