过去300年中国西南与东部地区雨季始期变化特征的比较研究  

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF START DATES OF RAINY SEASON IN SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN CHINA DURING THE PAST 300 YEARS

作　　者：郝志新[1,2] 张亮 刘洋[1,2] 葛全胜 HAO Zhixin;ZHANG Liang;LIU Yang;GE Quansheng(Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2021年第2期389-397,共9页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:41831174和41671201)资助。

摘　　要：亚洲夏季风强弱、雨季来临早迟与我国夏季旱涝的关系密切,因此深入探究亚洲季风的长期变化规律及其各子区域季风系统的相互联系与稳定性具有重要科学意义。文章在参考中国气象局据气象观测资料制定的西南地区雨季开始期行业标准的基础上,结合历史文献清代雨雪分寸的记载特点,重建了1736~1911年成都地区的雨季开始日期序列,分析了其年际-年代际变化的基本特征,并与昆明、华南、长江中下游和华北等地的雨季开始日期序列进行了对比。发现:历史时期成都雨季的初始日与1951~2015年一致,均为5月6候;1740s~1790s、1840s~1850s、1880s~1890s、1960s~1970s和2000s雨季来临较早,而1800s~1830s、1860s~1870s、1900s、1950s和1980s~1990s雨季则推迟;尽管中国东部季风雨带在历史时期的推进过程与现代基本一致,差异为1~3天,但随着季风强度的变化,表现出明显的年代际波动;成都雨季受到南亚季风和东亚季风的共同影响,其雨季来临早晚的变化与昆明相关性更高,与长江中下游梅雨季开始的早晚关系不明显。此外,研究结果还显示亚洲季风在1980~2000年减弱的现象,也曾经发生在1810~1830年。The intensity of Asian summer monsoon,the starting dates of rainy season have close relationship with summer precipitation anomalies.Thus,it is of great scientific significance to further explore the long-term variations of Asian monsoon,as well as the interactions and stabilities of relationships between its sub-regional monsoon systems.The Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun,one of Chinese historical documents,continuously recorded occurrence dates for each precipitation process,the intensities of precipitation and the qualitative rainfall descriptions for a certain period over Southwest China in Qing Dynasty,which provided reliable evidences for the starting dates of rainy season reconstruction with high temporal and spatial resolution.Here,we developed a suitable method for identifying the historical starting dates of rainy seasons from 1736 A.D.to 1911 A.D.,referring to the standard of judging the start date of modern rainy season in Chengdu(30.67°N,104.06°E)of Southwest China.In order to understand the reasonability of our reconstruction method,the criteria of historical and observed rainy seasons were both used for1951~2015 A.D.It was found that 80%of starting dates were identical between the two results.Thus,this paper reconstructed the series of starting dates over rainy season in Chengdu from 1736 A.D.to1911 A.D.,analyzed the characteristics of its interannual-decadal variations,and made a comparison with the series in Kunming,South China,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and North China.It was found that the starting date of rainy season in Chengdu was both on the 6 thpentad of May during historical period and1951~2015 A.D.The onsets of rainy seasons over 1740 s~1790 s,1840 s~1850 s,1880 s~1890 s,1960 s~1970 s and 2000 s were earlier,while the rainy seasons over 1800 s~1830 s,1860 s~1870 s,1900 s,1950 s and1980 s~1990 s were delayed.Although the shifting of the monsoon rain belt in Eastern China during historical period was proximately consistent with that in modern period,with 1~3 days difference,it stil

关 键 词：西南地区 雨季初始日 年代际变化 东亚季风区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P468