过去千年ENSO演化历史重建再分析  

REANALYSIS OF THE ENSO RECONSTRUCTIONS OVER THE PAST MILLENNIUM

作　　者：薛惠鸿 史锋[1,3] 刘威 王江林 杨保[5] XUE Huihong;SHI Feng;LIU Wei;WANG Jianglin;YANG Bao(Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment,Beijing 100044;School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,Hubei;Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,中国科学院新生代地质与环境重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院,北京100049 [3]中国科学院生物演化与环境卓越创新中心,北京100044 [4]中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [5]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2021年第2期474-485,共12页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:41888101、41690114、42077406和41877440);中国科学院(B类)战略性科技先导专项项目(批准号:XDB26020204);中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所重点部署项目(批准号:IGGCAS-201905)共同资助;国家重点研究发展计划项目(批准号:2016YFA0600504)。

摘　　要：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation,简称ENSO)作为气候系统内部变率的最显著模态,对全球气候变化起到重要影响。利用珊瑚、树轮等气候代用记录对ENSO进行重建研究能够帮助我们认识气象仪器观测之前历史时期ENSO的变化规律,但由于气候代用记录和重建方法的不确定性导致目前对过去千年ENSO变化特征及其机理仍不明确。文章从气候代用记录和重建方法两方面对目前已公开发表的21条ENSO重建序列进行了评估。结果发现:在1146~1335年和1627~1757年,已有ENSO重建序列之间存在明显不一致现象,1146~1335年相关性差,可能与北美低纬树轮对ENSO响应不一致有关,而1627~1757年相关性差,可能与热带西太平洋珊瑚对ENSO的记录能力下降有关;同时,在过去千年,ENSO年际振幅变化在现代暖期呈显著上升趋势,而年代际振幅变化在中世纪暖期呈显著下降趋势,并且ENSO振幅存在多年代际周期振荡,其振幅的年际-年代际变化可能均与热带太平洋气候平均态有关。讨论和评估现有的ENSO重建结果有助于更好地了解不同重建之间的异同性,对进一步准确认识ENSO变化规律提供集成证据。As the most significant mode of variability in the climate system,El Ni1 o Southern-Oscillation(ENSO)plays an important role in global climate change.ENSO reconstruction using proxy records such as coral and tree ring can helps us understand the ENSO change during the historical period before the meteorological instrumental observation.However,the consistency,variability and mechanism of the existing ENSO reconstructions are still unclear,because of the uncertainty of proxy records and reconstruction methods.Here,21 reconstructed sequences and their proxy records were collected from National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA),and the reconstructed sequences were reviewed and evaluated from two aspects of proxy records and reconstruction methods.The proxies used for ENSO reconstruction are divided into three categories:corals,tree rings,and other types of proxies.The coral record is absent during the period(1000~1145 A.D.).In addition,the corals from the western Pacific Ocean and the tree-rings from southeast Asia show a declining ability to record ENSO from1870 A.D.to 1900 A.D.,and the same situation in the tree rings in southwestern North America during the period(1960~1990 A.D.),which is related to the weak teleconnection between the proxy records and the ENSO variability in these two periods.We evaluated ENSO reconstruction sequences from two aspects:correlation and amplitude.Results show that most ENSO reconstructions are significantly correlated with the instrumental ENSO,but there is still some deviation in the amplitude,especially the magnitude.The correlation among these ENSO reconstructions in the past millennium are analyzed.We found that there are distinct periods of low consistency between the reconstructed sequences during 1146~1335 A.D.and 1627~1757 A.D.The former period of low consistency may be associated with inconsistent tree-ring responding to ENSO in southwestern North America,and the latter period of low consistency may be related with a decline in the ability of tropical western Paci

关 键 词：过去千年 ENSO 古气候重建 树轮 珊瑚 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P534.632