社会-生态弹性视角下的历史气候变化影响社会发展机制  

MECHANISM OF IMPACT OF HISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGE TO HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE

作　　者：方修琦 Fang Xiuqi(Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部地理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2021年第2期577-588,共12页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院(A类)战略性先导科技专项项目(批准号:XDA19040101)资助。

摘　　要：过去全球变化(PAGES)研究高度关注的热点领域之一是各个时间尺度上的气候变化如何影响人类社会发展,其目的不仅是为了尽最大可能地还历史本真,更重要地是为了揭示具有一般意义的过程与机理并以史为鉴。社会-生态弹性是人类社会的内在属性,可以理解为人类社会忍受各种环境变化、社会、经济与政治动荡冲击的能力,弹性理论能够很好地阐释历史气候变化影响的过程与机制。本文尝试以此为视角,结合中外历史案例,对"历史气候变化如何影响社会发展"问题进行探讨,主要结论如下:1)气候变化对人类社会的影响与社会-生态弹性状态有关,如果气候变化影响仅突破人类社会某一子系统的弹性阈值,整个人类社会仍可通过其他子系统的适应性调整继续维持稳定;2)历史气候变化影响的5种表现形式与社会-生态弹性状态的关系是,人类社会对气候变化敏感但未突破弹性阈值时表现为周期波动或脉冲式变化,适宜性转型或崩溃发生在气候变化影响突破人类社会的弹性阈值的情况下;而迁徙-替代不论气候变化影响是否突破弹性阈值均可发生;3)人类社会可通过适应气候变化过程中的社会学习和创新增强甚至在更高水平上重构社会-生态弹性。One of the core themes of the Past Global Change Sciences(PAGES)is to understand the mechanism and process of the past human-climate-ecosystem’s interaction in various spatial and temporal scales.The ultimate objective of such a research is for coping with the challenges of the ongoing climate change impacts and adaptation by learning from the history,more than for learning about the detailed historical truth.Social-ecological resilience is an inner attribute of the human society,which refers to the capacity of the social-ecological system to absorb disturbances such as environment change,social-economic fluctuation and political turmoil.The concept of socialecological resilience could well illustrate the mechanism and process of the impacts of historical climate change.In this paper,the issue about how past climate change impact the social development in the history was discussed in the perspective of social-ecological resilience.Following is the conclusions.(1)The impact of climate change occurred when the state of social-ecological resilience could not absorb the disturbance.Even if the impacts of climate change is beyond the tolerable threshold of social-ecological resilience for a certain subsystem,the whole system could still maintain its state by adaptations of other resilient subsystems.(2)Among the five patterns of social response to climate change impacts,the patterns of periodic changes and the pulse occurred when human society was sensitive to climate change but the impact was still within the threshold of social-ecological resilience.The patterns of the adaptive transition and the collapse happened when the impact of climate change had exceeded the resilience threshold.While the pattern of migration and replacement occurred regardless of the impacts of climate change exceeded the resilience threshold.(3)Social learning and innovations created by climate change adaption,could enhance the social-ecological resilience,or recreate an even more resilient system,that promotes the development and progress

关 键 词：社会弹性 气候变化影响 历史气候变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]