人民币加入SDR前后的国际货币权力变化及趋势  

The Change and Trend of International Monetary Power Before and After RMB Joining SDR

作　　者：廖泽芳[1] 阎菩莲 LIAO Ze-fang;YAN Pu-lian(School of Economics&Management,Shanghai Ocean University,201306)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,201306

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2021年第3期84-92,共9页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“网络演进视角下国际货币权力转移及人民币国际化对策研究”(批准号:18YJAGJW006);“复旦大学-金光集团思想库”2020年度课题(批准号:JGSXK2009,JGSXK2007);国家社科基金后期资助项目“附加值贸易网络关系视角的中国对外贸易模式及转型升级研究”(批准号:18FJY022);上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题(项目编号:2020BGJ004)阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：国际货币的权力分配随着国际货币体系演进呈现动态变化,近10年变化趋势与人民币的国际地位演进密切相关。本文使用货币共同变动回归方法,对2010-2016年和2016-2019年两个时期内储备货币区规模进行比较,研究不同国家货币与特别提款权(SDR)篮子的联动程度,得出人民币加入SDR前后的国际货币权力变化趋势。研究结果表明,人民币入篮后权力地位上升,国际货币体系从由美元和欧元构成的两极体系过渡到包括人民币在内的三极体系;美元的权力地位虽然有所下滑,将继续在国际货币体系中占据主导地位;欧元的影响力呈现下降趋势,但货币区结构相对稳定。未来人民币应继续扩大在周边地区及"一带一路"沿线的使用范围,增强人民币影响力。The power distribution of the international currency changes dynamically with the evolution of the international monetary system,and its change trend in the past 10 years is closely related to the evolution of the international status of the RMB.This paper uses the regression method of currency common movements to compare the size of reserve currency areas during 2010-2016 and 2016-2019,and studies the linkage degree between different countries’currencies and the SDR basket,so as to obtain the change trend of the international monetary power before and after the RMB joining the SDR.The results show that the power status of RMB rises after it is included in the basket,and the international monetary system transitions from a bipolar system composed of USD and Euro to a three-polar system including RMB.The dollar will continue to play a dominant role in the international monetary system,although its power status has declined somewhat.The share of euro currency usage decreased,but the overall structure of the currency area remained stable.In the future,RMB should continue to expand its influence in surrounding areas and promote its continued internationalization.

关 键 词：国际货币体系 国际货币权力变化 储备货币区 人民币 货币锚 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]