中亚地区粮食生产潜力及发展潜力分析——基于GAEZ方法  

Analysis of grain production and development potentiality in Central Asia based on GAEZ method

作　　者：廖梦婷 魏凤[1] LIAO Meng-ting;WEI Feng(College of Economics and Management,Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2021年第3期582-593,共12页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71673222);教育部人文社科基金项目(15XJA790005)。

摘　　要：中亚地区因特殊的地理位置和高粮食生产能力,对维护世界粮食安全意义重大,发掘中亚地区粮食生产潜力有助于全球粮食危机缓解。采用GAEZ方法,结合联合国粮农组织数据库,定量分析了中亚地区5个国家、9种粮食作物的潜在单产及潜在面积,并通过控制粮食单产和生产面积的变化提出三种假设,测算出不同假设下中亚地区的粮食生产潜力、发展潜力和发展潜力幅度。结果表明:中亚地区的哈萨克斯坦粮食生产潜力和发展潜力大;小麦、大麦产量有较大提升空间,高粱、黑麦、谷子、燕麦、荞麦产量提升空间小且潜力集中在哈萨克斯坦,但高粱的发展潜力幅度很大。Central Asia is of great significance for maintaining world food security because of its special geographical location and high grain production capacity.Exploring the potential of grain production in this region will help alleviate the global food crisis.In this paper,the GAEZ method,combined with the FAOSTAT database,is used to quantitatively analyze the potential yield per unit area and potential area of nine grain crops in the five Central Asian countries.And based on the assumption that the production area is a constant,the output per unit area is a constant,while the output per unit area and the production area are changed.In addition,the grain production potential,and the range of development potential in this region are measured.The results show that among the five countries,Kazakhstan has the greatest potential for grain production and development potential.In terms of crop types,wheat has the greatest potential for grain production and development potential,followed by barley;while oats,rye,sorghum,millet and buckwheat have the least grain production and development potential,and are concentrated in Kazakhstan In addition,sorghum has the largest range of development potential in the whole region.

关 键 词：生产潜力 发展潜力 粮食 中亚地区 

分 类 号：F316.11[经济管理—产业经济]