基于样本熵的泾河流域降水径流关系分析  

Analysis of Precipitation Runoff Relationship in Jinghe River Basin Based on Sample Entropy

作　　者：孙东永[1] 袁业鹏 刘尚东 许晶晶 SUN Dongyong;YUAN Yepeng;LIU Shangdong;XU Jingjing(Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region of Ministry of Education,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《人民黄河》2021年第4期38-42,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51409005,51979005);陕西省水利厅科技计划项目(2018slkj-11)。

摘　　要：受气候变化和人类活动影响,流域的降水径流关系发生了变化,如何准确识别降水径流内在关系对于区域水资源合理配置具有重要的意义。以泾河流域月降水和径流为研究对象,采用滑动样本熵分析降水径流的复杂性,并结合极点对称模态分解法探讨其周期与太阳黑子的关系;采用滑动移除样本熵分析降水径流的突变性,并结合滑动相关系数法分析降水径流的相关关系。结果表明:降水、径流演变均呈现4个阶段的特征,各个阶段的转折分别对应大背景气候突变和人类活动影响;降水、径流在11 a左右周期上与太阳黑子的演变呈现一定的负相关关系,降水更加明显;降水、径流均在1996年发生了突变,而降水径流相关关系在1971年、1985年和1997年发生了改变,其中1971年和1997年的改变与人类活动密切相关,而1985年的改变则是气候突变的结果。Under climate change and human activities,the relationship between precipitation and runoff has been destroyed.How to accurately identify the relationship between precipitation and runoff is of great significance for the rational allocation of regional water resources.Taking the monthly precipitation and runoff in Jinghe River Basin as the research object,the complexity of precipitation and runoff was analyzed by using moving sample entropy,and the relationship between its period and sunspot was discussed by using ExtremePoint Symmetric Mode Decomposition.The abrupt change of precipitation and runoff was analyzed by moving cut sample entropy,and the correlation between precipitation and runoff was analyzed by sliding correlation coefficient method.The results show that:the evolution of the complexity of precipitation and runoff presents the characteristics of four stages,and the transition of each stage corresponds to the impact of abrupt climate change and human activities;the precipitation and runoff have a certain negative correlation with the evolution of sunspot in about 11 years cycle,and the precipitation is more obvious.The precipitation and runoff have a sudden change in 1996,the relationship between precipitation and runoff is changed in 1971,1985 and 1997.The change in 1971 and 1997 is closely related to human activities,while the change in 1985 is the result of abrupt climate change.

关 键 词：样本熵 ESMD 降水径流关系 泾河流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]