货币政策、财政政策与产业政策协同性研究——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证分析  

The effects of foreign trade policy, monetary policy and fiscal policy on China’s macro economy——Empirical analysis based on TVP-VAR model

作　　者：王雅琴 

机构地区：[1]山西工程技术学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第9期107-110,179,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：《基于供给侧改革视角下的我国绿色金融创新发展研究》,编号2019019。

摘　　要：关注财政、货币与产业政策的协调配合及其宏观经济效应具有较高的研究价值。本文选取2011年1月至2020年8月的月度数据,建立包含财政、货币、产业(外贸)政策与宏观经济四因素的时变参数向量自回归模型,并从时间和时点两个维度分析四个因素的动态关系。研究结果表明:首先,财政政策与货币政策均是通过调节市场需求推动经济发展,财政政策对宏观经济的影响为即时响应,即短期刺激效果好于长期,而货币政策对宏观经济的影响为累计响应,即长期促进作用好于短期。其次,我国是贸易出口大国,对外贸易受到国际贸易环境变化的短期影响大。最后,我国宏观经济发展具有连续性,经济发展具有一定惯性,这和国家实施"五年规划"有关,前期五年规划的发展成果对后期有非常重要的影响。The coordination among fiscal policy, foreign trade policy and monetary policy is an important content of the new development concept in the period of high-quality development. Paying attention to the coordination of fiscal, monetary and foreign trade policies and their macroeconomic effects have high research value. This paper selects monthly data from January 2011 to August 2020, establishes a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model that includes four factors of foreign trade, finance, currency and macroeconomics, and analyzes the dynamic relationship of the four factors from the two dimensions of time and time.The research results show that: First, fiscal policy and monetary policy promote economic development by adjusting market demand. The impact of fiscal policy on the macroeconomic is an immediate response, that is, the short-term stimulus effect is better than the long-term effect, while the monetary policy has a cumulative impact on the macroeconomic response, that is, the long-term promotion effect is better than the short-term. Secondly, China’s foreign trade is subject to short-term effects of changes in the international trade environment. Finally, China’s macroeconomic development has continuity and economic development has a certain inertia. This is related to the country’s implementation of the "Five-Year Plan".The development results of the early five-year plan have a very important impact on the later period.

关 键 词：财政政策 货币政策 产业政策 宏观经济 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F812.0F120