城市二手房价格评估方法研究——基于Lasso-GM-RF组合模型对北京市二手房价格的分析  

Research on Price Evaluation Method of Urban Second-hand Housing——Analysis of the price of second-hand housing in Beijing based on the Lasso-GM-RF combination model

作　　者：张望舒 马立平[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第9期172-175,180,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：我国房地产行业蓬勃发展,传统的价格评估方法已不能满足市场日益增长的二手房评估需求。本文设定组合评估模型评估城市二手房价格:首先,运用lasso回归筛选出城市GDP、城市常住人口数、房地产开发投资对城市房地产总体均价产生显著影响的变量,将这三个变量所蕴含的时间因素以及政策因素通过lasso回归传导至城市房地产总体均价,借助灰色预测方法得出这三个关键变量未来几年的数值,依旧使用lasso回归,构建城市房地产均价的预测模型。其次,运用行政加权法,对不同行政区域赋予不同权重。再次,运用随机森林模型建立特定经济环境下二手房屋特征价格评估模型,经过检验,该随机森林模型符合房地产估价规范中要求的误差范围。最后,整合以上三个模型,建立可以估算不同经济环境、不同区域、不同二手房屋价格的组合评估模型,通过实例分析,本文发现:该组合评估模型对二手房的评估效果良好。my country’s real estate industry is booming, and traditional price evaluation methods can no longer meet the growing demand for second-hand housing evaluation in the market. This paper sets up a combined evaluation model to evaluate the price of urban second-hand houses: First, use lasso regression to filter out the variables that have a significant impact on the overall average price of urban real estate by using lasso regression to filter out the variables that have a significant impact on the overall average price of urban real estate. Time factors and policy factors are transmitted to the overall average price of urban real estate through lasso regression. The gray forecast method is used to obtain the values ??of these three key variables in the next few years. The lasso regression is still used to construct a prediction model for the average price of urban real estate.Second, use the administrative weighting method to assign different weights to different administrative regions. Third, the random forest model is used to establish a second-hand housing characteristic price evaluation model in a specific economic environment. After testing, the random forest model meets the error range required in the real estate valuation specification.Finally, integrate the above three models to establish a combined evaluation model that can estimate the prices of different economic environments, different regions, and different second-hand houses. Through the analysis of examples, this paper finds that the combined evaluation model has a good effect on the evaluation of second-hand houses.

关 键 词：二手房价格评估 lasso回归 灰色预测 随机森林模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F299.23