居民每日死亡例数与空气污染物日均浓度的关系  

The relationship between air pollutants and mortality in Huairou District

作　　者：曹洋 杨丽梅[1] 坑斌[2] 刘羽[1] CAO Yang;YANG Limei;KENG Bin;LIU Yu(Institute of Information and Statistics,Huairou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 101400,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]北京市怀柔区疾病预防控制中心信息统计科,北京101400 [2]北京市怀柔区疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科

出　　处：《预防医学》2021年第3期231-235,共5页CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL

基　　金：国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101200-03)。

摘　　要：目的评价北京市怀柔区居民每日死亡例数与空气污染物日均浓度的关系,为制订空气污染治理措施提供依据。方法通过北京市环境保护监测中心怀柔镇环境监测站点、怀柔区气象局和北京市卫生防病监测信息资源整合分析平台收集2014—2018年怀柔区空气污染物监测、气象监测及死因监测资料,采用广义相加模型分析居民每日死亡例数与空气污染物日均浓度的关系。结果2014—2018年怀柔区SO_(2)、NO_(2)、CO、O_(3)、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)日均浓度的中位数分别为5.00μg/m^(3)、24.00μg/m^(3)、0.71 mg/m^(3)、77.27μg/m^(3)、64.25μg/m^(3)和44.13μg/m^(3),除O_(3)外均呈下降趋势(P<0.05)。单污染物模型结果显示,NO_(2)日均浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),全人群、女性和<65岁人群每日非意外死亡风险在滞后2 d时分别增加1.69%(95%CI:0.31%~3.08%)、3.31%(95%CI:1.24%~5.42%)和3.31%(95%CI:0.51%~6.19%);CO和PM_(2.5)日均浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),<65岁人群每日非意外死亡风险在滞后2 d时分别增加0.08%(95%CI:0.01%~0.14%)和0.88%(95%CI:0.12%~1.64%);O3日均浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),男性每日非意外死亡风险在滞后4 d时增加0.69%(95%CI:0.02%~1.36%)。多污染物模型结果显示,NO_(2)、CO和PM_(2.5)在分别调整其他2种空气污染物的影响后,对<65岁人群每日非意外死亡的影响在滞后2 d时均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论怀柔区NO_(2)、CO、O_(3)和PM_(2.5)日均浓度升高可能增加居民每日非意外死亡的风险,且存在一定的滞后性。Objective To evaluate the relationship between air pollutants and mortality of residents in Huairou District,Beijing,providing a basis for the formulation of air pollution control measures.Methods The data of daily deaths,meteorological factors and air pollutants in Huairou District from 2014 to 2018 were collected from Beijing Disease Prevention Monitoring Information Integration and Analysis System,Huairou Meteorological Bureau and Environmental Monitoring Station.The generalized additive models were used to analyze the relationship between the average daily concentration of air pollutants and the daily deaths.Results The medians of daily average concentrations of SO_(2),NO_(2),CO,O_(3),PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) were 5.00μg/m^(3),24.00μg/m^(3),0.71 mg/m^(3),77.27μg/m^(3),64.25μg/m^(3) and 44.13μg/m^(3),respectively.Except for O_(3),the daily average concentrations of SO_(2),NO_(2),CO,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) showed decreasing trends from 2014 to 2018.An increase of 10μg/m^(3) of NO_(2) resulted in an elevation of 1.69%(95%CI:0.31%-3.08%),3.31%(95%CI:1.24%-5.42%)and 3.31%(95%CI:0.51%-6.19%)for non-accidental death in the whole population,females and people under 65 years old,respectively,with a delay of 2 days(lag2).For every 10μg/m^(3) increase in the daily average concentrations of CO and PM_(2.5),the risk of non-accidental death among people under 65 years old at lag2 increased by 0.08%(95%CI:0.01%-0.14%)and 0.88%(95%CI:0.12%-1.64%),respectively.For every 10μg/m^(3) increase in daily average concentration of O_(3),there was 0.69%(95%CI:0.02%-1.36%)increase in daily male non-accidental death risk at lag4.The results of the multi-pollutant model showed that after adjusting the effects of the other two air pollutants,NO_(2),CO and PM2.5 had no statistically significant effects on the daily non-accidental deaths of people under 65 years old at lag2(P>0.05).Conclusion The ambient NO_(2),CO,O_(3) and PM2.5 pollution increase daily non-accidental deaths,which shows a lag effect.

关 键 词：空气污染物 非意外死亡 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学] R195[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]