广东外贸进出口对财政收入的影响分析  

An Analysis of the Impact of Guangdong’s Foreign Trade Import&Export on Fiscal Revenue

作　　者：谢易和 XIE Yi-he

机构地区：[1]广东省财政科学研究所

出　　处：《经济论坛》2021年第3期46-55,共10页Economic Forum

摘　　要：作为全国对外经贸大省,外贸进出口对广东经济乃至财政收入增长而言具有极其重要的影响。理论上,外贸进出口作为对外经贸活动,不仅能直接产生财政收入,而且通过拉动国内投资、消费等经济活动,间接促进财政收入增长。通过构建协整与误差修正模型分析发现,广东进出口总额、“投资消费”总额与财政收入之间具有长期稳定的比例关系,进出口总额、“投资消费”总额对财政收入的弹性系数分别为0.69、0.72,进出口总额对广东财政收入的影响,与“投资消费”总额相比具有同等重要作用,促进财政收入平稳增长须加大支持稳外贸政策力度。Foreign trade import&export have an extremely important impact on the economy and even fiscal revenue growth of Guangdong as a big province in foreign economy&trade in the country.In theory,the foreign trade import&export as a foreign economic and trade activity can not only directly generate fiscal revenue,but also indirectly promote fiscal revenue growth by stimulating domestic investment,consumption and other economic activ⁃ities.Through an analysis based on the building of co-integration and error correction model,it is found that Guang⁃dong’s total export-import volume,total volume of“investment&consumption”and fiscal revenue have a longterm stable proportional relationship.The elastic coefficients of total export-import volume and total volume of“in⁃vestment&consumption”to fiscal revenue are respectively 0.69,and 0.72,and the impact of total export-import volume on Guangdong’s fiscal revenue is as important as the total volume of“investment&consumption”.To promote the steady growth of fiscal revenue,it is necessary to make more policy support for stabilizing foreign trade.

关 键 词：外贸进出口 财政收入 投资消费ECM模型 

分 类 号：F812.41[经济管理—财政学] F752.6