出口贸易有助于缓和中国企业生产率的周期波动么?  

Can Export Help Mitigate the Cyclicality of Firms'Productivities in China?

作　　者：陆长玮 Lu Changwei(School of Economics,Fudan University,200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《上海经济》2021年第2期10-24,共15页Shanghai Economy

摘　　要：本文提出了出口有助于缓和企业生产率周期波动等理论假说,进而利用WLP半参数方法对1998—2007年中国工业企业的生产率进行估计,考察出口是否影响企业生产率的周期波动。结果表明,中国企业生产率存在显著的顺周期效应和出口溢价,经济扩张期的企业生产率显著高于经济收缩期,出口企业的生产率显著高于非出口企业;而且出口缓和了企业生产率的顺周期变化,弱化了经济周期变动对企业生产率的影响,企业生产率的出口溢价表现出逆周期特征。上述结论通过了稳健性检验,也验证了相关理论假说。This paper brings about theoretical hypotheses about whether exports can mitigate the cyclicality of firms’productivities.After estimating the productivities of Chinese firms from the year 1998 to 2007 by WLP semi-parametric method,this paper empirically investigates whether exports mitigate the impacts of business cycles on firms'productivities.We find there are remarkable expansion premiums and export premiums for firms'productivities.In other words,the productivities are higher in expansion periods than recessions and firms that involve exports also have higher productivities.It turns out exports can moderate the pro-cyclicality of productivities for firms and lessen the impacts of business cycles on the firms’productivities.It is also found that the export premiums of productivities are counter-cyclical.The conclusions above are robust and verify the related theoretical hypotheses.

关 键 词：出口贸易 周期波动 WLP半参数法 顺周期效应 扩张期溢价 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]