我国财政货币政策区域效应再检验——基于2014—2018年17个季度省级面板数据  

Retesting the Regional Effect of China's Fiscal and Monetary Policy:Based on 2014-2018:17 Quarters Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：叶龙生 徐志仓[1] 王伟[1] YE Long-sheng;XU Zhi-cang;WANG Wei(Chaohu College,Chaohu Anhui 238000,China)

机构地区：[1]巢湖学院,安徽巢湖238000

出　　处：《铜陵学院学报》2021年第1期30-35,40,共7页Journal of Tongling University

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学项目“农地产权改革深化与农业现代化实现路径研究”(AHSKF2019D050)。

摘　　要：在测算财政货币政策产出时滞基础上合理确定模型形式,并利用财政支出、社会融资规模及GDP省级面板数据对新常态下我国财政货币政策的区域效应进行检验。不同于传统区域划分方式,区域效应在以财政货币政策作用力度本身为标准分成的三组面板数据检验中得以证实,并通过稳健性检验。结果表明:货币政策效果不够显著,且在SFS/GDP低,LFE/GDP高组发挥抑制作用,间接反映出社会融资规模未能有效引导资金流向,金融供给质量欠佳;财政政策在三组中均发挥显著正向作用,且在SFS/GDP和LFE/GDP双高及双低组作用更优;但两者仅在SFS/GDP低,LFE/GDP高表现出协调配合作用,财政货币共同发力不能过猛或不足。The model form is reasonably determined on the basis of measuring the time lag of fiscal and monetary policy output,and the regional effects of China's fiscal and monetary policy under the new normal are tested by using fiscal expenditure,social financing scale and GDP provincial panel data.The regional effects are confirmed in three sets of panel data tests,which are divided by the fiscal and monetary policy itself,and passed the robustness test.The results show that the effect of monetary policy is not significant enough,and the SFS/GDP is low,and the LFE/GDP high group plays a restraining role,which indirectly reflects that the social financing scale fails to effectively guide the flow of funds,and the quality of financial supply is not good.The fiscal policy play a significant positive role in three groups,and it is better in SFS/GDP and LFE/GDP double high and double low groups;but the two only show coordination in SFS/GDP low and LFE/GDP high,and fiscal and monetary co-force cannot be too strong or insufficient.Based on this,the next research direction is pointed out.

关 键 词：区域效应 财政政策 货币政策 交互项 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F822.0