美国推动中美科技脱钩的经济效应——基于假设抽取法的分析  

The Economic Effect of the Decoupling of Sino-US Science and Technology Promoted by the United States:An Analysis Based on the Hypothesis Extraction Method

作　　者：姜鸿[1] 朱静 刘玥 Jiang Hong;Zhu Jing;Liu Yue

机构地区：[1]常州大学经济学院 [2]常州大学商学院

出　　处：《常州大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第2期38-46,共9页Journal of Changzhou University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国绿色贸易利益的测度及提升对策研究”(18AJL012)。

摘　　要：美国对中国采取的科技限制措施将影响两国的经济,通过一系列连锁反应,进而影响世界其他经济体。基于假设抽取法和世界投入-产出模型,测算产出变化对最终需求变化反向影响,构建出口乘数指标,分析美国推动中美科技脱钩给中美及世界其他经济体带来的经济影响。结果表明:世界主要经济体总产出均下降,都会不同程度地受到中美科技脱钩的间接影响,其中美国总产出受损最大。美国推动中美科技脱钩对中美不同行业的负面影响存在差异。美国的出口乘数最大,中国和加拿大等国的出口乘数随着美国对华科技脱钩程度加深也在增大。因此,我国应积极培育国内产业链,增强科技创新能力,从根本上提高应对风险的能力。Since the Sino-US trade friction occurred, the attitude of the United States towards Sino-US scientific and technological exchanges and cooperation has changed greatly. The scientific and technological restriction measures taken by the United States against China will affect the economies of the two countries, and then affect other economies in the world through a series of chain reactions. Based on the hypothesis extraction method and the world input-output model, this paper calculates the reverse impact of output changes on the final demand changes, constructs the export multiplier indicators, analyzes the economic impacts on China, the United States and other economies in the world caused by the decoupling of Sino-US science and technology promoted by the United States. The results show that the total outputs of the world's major economies decline, which are indirectly affected to varying degrees, and the total output of the United States is the most damaged.The negative impacts of the decoupling of Sino-US science and technology promoted by the United States on different industries in China and the United States are different. The export multiplier of the United States is the largest, and the export multipliers of China and Canada also increase with the deepening of the decoupling degree of American science and technology from China.Therefore, it is suggested that China should actively cultivate the domestic industrial chain, enhance the ability of scientific and technological innovation, and fundamentally improve the ability to cope with risks.

关 键 词：投入-产出分析 假设抽取法 最终需求 

分 类 号：F114.41[经济管理—国际贸易]