双边货币互换协议与中国出口贸易增长——基于汇率波动风险的视角  

Research on Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement and China's Export Growth Based on the Perspective of Exchange Rate Fluctuation Risk

作　　者：刘竹青 张俊美 张宏斌 Liu Zhu-qing;Zhang Jun-mei;Zhang Hong-bin

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福州350007 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [3]福建省财政厅,福州350003

出　　处：《亚太经济》2021年第2期27-36,共10页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“代销贸易与企业生产率研究:理论与中国事实”(19YJC790089)。

摘　　要：2008年以来,中国与30多个贸易伙伴签订了双边货币互换协议,基于2009—2019年中国对主要贸易伙伴的月度出口数据,从汇率波动风险的视角检验了双边货币互换安排对中国出口贸易增长的影响。研究结果表明:双边货币互换安排通过平抑汇率波动风险显著促进了中国出口贸易的增长,但这一作用有一定的时效性,只在协议签订后;3个月内格外明显。拓展性分析部分专门评估了中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间双边货币互换安排的实施效果,发现双边货币互换安排通过平抑汇率波动风险,对中国向“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易增长的促进作用更突出,所进行的稳健性检验均证实了基本结论的准确性和可靠性。Since 2008, China has signed RMB bilateral currency swap agreements with more than 30 trading partners. Based on China’s monthly export data with major trading partners from 2009 to 2019, this paper examines the impact of bilateral currency swap arrangements on China’s export growth from the perspective of exchange rate fluctuation risk. The basic results show that RMB bilateral currency swap arrangement does significantly promote the growth of China’s export by reducing the exchange rate fluctuations, but this effect is only obvious within three months after signing of RMB bilateral currency swap arrangement. The extended analysis part specifically evaluates the effects of RMB bilateral currency swap arrangement between China and the"Belt and Road"countries on China’s export growth and finds that RMB bilateral currency swap arrangement has more significant promotion effect on China’s export to the"Belt and Road"countries. In addition, the robustness tests confirm the accuracy and reliability of the basic results.

关 键 词：双边货币互换 出口贸易 汇率波动风险 “一带一路”沿线国家 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]