西北地区财政可持续性能力比较分析——基于跨期预算约束模型的分析  

Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Northwest China——Based on Inter-temporal Budget Constraint Model

作　　者：李秀 LI Xiu(School of Finance,Taxation and Public Management,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学财税与公共管理学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《陇东学院学报》2021年第1期111-115,共5页Journal of Longdong University

基　　金：兰州财经大学甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心重点课题(JYYZ201803)。

摘　　要："一带一路"对西北地区而言是新的机遇和挑战,而财政的可持续能力是西北地区能否抓住这一机遇、应对这一挑战的关键因素。通过构造跨期预算约束模型,对西北地区财政可持续能力进行比较分析。在进行E-G协整检验后,结果表明西北地区财政可持续能力由强到弱分别为陕西省、青海省、宁夏回族自治区、甘肃省和新疆维吾尔自治区,其中甘肃省和新疆维吾尔自治区的财政可持续能力相当弱。故此应通过丰富财政收入途径、调整财政收支结构和加强预算绩效管理等措施,提高西北地区财政可持续能力。The Belt and Road Initiative is a new opportunity and challenge for Northwest China.Financial sustainability is the key factor for Northwest China to seize the opportunity and meet the challenge.We compare and analyze the financial sustainability of Northwest China through the construction of cross period budget constraint model.After the E-G co-integration test,the results show that the fiscal sustainability of Northwest China is from strong to weak in Shaanxi province,Qinghai Province,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,among which Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region have relatively weak fiscal sustainability.In order to improve the financial sustainability of Northwest China,we should take measures such as enriching financial revenue channels,adjusting the structure of financial revenue and expenditure,and strengthening budget performance management.

关 键 词：西北地区 财政可持续能力 现代财政 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]