失业保险的参保再就业效应与道德风险效应——城镇职工和迁移工人的异同  

The Effect of Insured Re-employment and the Moral Risk Effect of Unem⁃ployment Insurance:Similarity and Difference between Urban and Migrant Employees

作　　者：孙守纪[1] 杨一 方黎明[1] SUN Shouji;YANG Yi;FANG Liming(School of Insurance and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029;School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学保险学院,北京100029 [2]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《江汉学术》2021年第3期5-19,共15页JIANGHAN ACADEMIC

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“新冠肺炎疫情冲击背景下失业保险逆周期调节机制研究”(20BGL213)。

摘　　要：我国现有的失业保险制度以城镇职工为目标群体,在向迁移工人覆盖的过程中,迁移工人对其反应自然也会不同于前者。根据中国城乡劳动力流动调查数据(RUMiC),使用Cox比例机会模型,可分别检验是否参加失业保险以及保险金替代率对城镇职工和迁移工人再就业的不同影响。实证分析表明,失业保险在城镇职工存在明显的参保再就业效应,该效应在高年龄、低学历组中更加显著,随着净资产的提高逐步弱化。失业保险在迁移工人中存在较为明显的道德风险效应,该效应在低年龄、高学历组中更加显著,随着净资产的提高逐步弱化。无论是城镇职工还是迁移工人,提高失业保险替代率对再就业的影响随着失业时间呈现先上升后下降的趋势。上述探讨与发现将有助于完善我国失业保险制度,从而促进迁移工人更好融入城市生活。The current unemployment system of China targets urban employees,so when it is applied to migrant workers,there are different reactions to it.According to the Rural-Urban Migration in China(RUMiC),the different effects of participation or non-participation in unemployment insurance and the substitution rate of insurance on urban employees and migrant workers can be tested by the Cox proportional hazards model.Empirical analysis reflects that unemployment insurance has a distinct insured re-employment effect on the part of urban employees,which is significant in the group of higher age and lower education background but becomes less noted as their net asset increases.The unemployment insurance,on the part of migrant workers,has an obvious moral risk effect,which is significant in the group of lower age and higher education background but becomes less noted as their net asset increases.The influence of increasing the unemployment insurance substitute rate on the re-employment of either urban employees or migrant worker shows a tendency of rising first followed by a fall,as the unemployment time increases.The above research is conducive to perfecting the unemployment insurance system of China and helping migrant workers to better integrate into city life.

关 键 词：失业保险 劳动供给 道德风险 参保者 就业效应 COX回归 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]