基于物元分析模型的岩溶地区县域“二元”水生态承载力演变过程研究  

Evolution on Ecological Carrying Capacity of Dualistic Water in County Scale Based on Matter Element Analysis Model

作　　者：左太安 张凤太 于世杰 杨庆 ZUO Taian;ZHANG Fengtai;YU Shijie;YANG Qing(School of Tourism Management and Services,Chongqing University of Education,Chongqing 400065,China;School of Management,Chongqing University of Technology,Chongqing 400054,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆第二师范学院旅游与服务管理学院,重庆400065 [2]重庆理工大学管理学院,重庆400054

出　　处：《人民珠江》2021年第4期90-98,共9页Pearl River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400708);贵州省科学技术基金项目(黔科合J字〔2015〕2121、黔科合〔2018〕072号);贵州省社会攻关计划项目(黔科合〔2016〕支撑2845)。

摘　　要：水生态承载力兼顾了水资源承载力和水环境承载力的内涵,并将社会经济发展与水生态系统有机结合起来,是实现水生态系统综合管理的基础研究之一,它的动态演变过程反映了水生态系统与社会经济系统之间的动态平衡。以岩溶地区贫困县威宁县为例,基于物元分析模型,选取凸显岩溶地区“二元三维”结构的水生态承载力指标,构建岩溶地区县域尺度的“二元”水生态承载力评价指标体系,演绎2006—2017年威宁县的“二元”水生态承载力动态演变过程。研究表明:2006—2017年威宁县“二元”水生态承载力等级不断提升,呈现了良好的发展趋势,科学技术的进步以及人们对水生态环境的日益重视是水生态承载力不断提升的重要原因;2006—2017年威宁“二元”水生态承载力主要集中在“可承载”等级,但在2006、2011年呈现为“弱承载”水平,说明“可承载”水平不稳定,容易受到极端气候变化的制约,仍需要进一步巩固已取得的成果;水库蓄水动态变化量、湖泊水质等级、工业用水重复利用率、人均水资源量、人均综合用水量、供水普及率等指标是威宁县今后需要关注的问题。此研究可为岩溶地区的水资源安全、生态安全以及环境建设提供有益的参考。The water ecological carrying capacity contains the water resource carrying capacity and the water environment carrying capacity.As one of the basic studies for integrated management of the water ecological system,this capacity connects socioeconomic development and the water ecological system.Hence its dynamic evolution reflects the dynamic equilibrium between the water ecological system and socioeconomic system.By taking the poverty-stricken Weining County in karst regions as an example,based on matter element analysis model,this paper sets up an evaluation indicator system for the ecological carrying capacity of dualistic water in county scale,and simulates the evolution of the ecological carrying capacity of dualistic water in Weining County between 2006 and 2017.The study shows that:The ecological carrying capacity of dualistic water in Weining County followed the tendency of turning for the better between 2006 and 2017.The technological advances and growing concern to the water ecological environment are two major causes of continual increases in its ecological carrying capacity of water.The ecological carrying capacity of dualistic water of Weining County between 2006 and 2017 was a tolerable level.However,the level shifted to weakly tolerable level in 2006 and 2011,meaning that the capacity was unstable and subject to extreme climatic changes.So,efforts should be made to consolidate existing achievements.Hence attention should be paid by Weining County to the dynamic changes in the reservoir filling,grade of water quality in lakes and rivers,recycle rate of industrial water,water resources per capita,water consumption per capita,and the rate of water-served population.The study will provide references for the water resource safety,ecological safety,and environmental construction in karst regions.

关 键 词：水生态承载力 物元分析 岩溶地区 威宁县 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]