第18届世界青年田径锦标赛跳高成绩预测研究  

The 18th World Athletics U20 Championships High Jump Performance Prediction Research

作　　者：李儒亚 LI Ru-ya(Guangzhou Sport University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510500,China)

机构地区：[1]广州体育学院,广东广州510500

出　　处：《体育研究与教育》2021年第2期80-84,共5页Sports Research and Education

摘　　要：采用文献资料法、数理统计法、灰色预测法、逻辑分析法,以第8届至第17届田径世青赛跳高前8名成绩的发展变化为依据,对第18届世界青年田径锦标赛跳高成绩进行预测。结果发现:(1)在第8—17届比赛中,各届成绩虽存在一定起伏,但只有男子第1名成绩总体呈下降趋势,其余成绩总体呈良好发展;(2)近10届比赛我国跳高运动员曾多次取得优异成绩,但在第13届之后仅女子获得一次第八名;(3)灰色预测和95%置信区间的结果显示模型的平均精确度和可信度都较高,仅男子第1名因显示发展系数为0未能建模预测,因此第18届比赛前3名和前8名的预测值男子为2.24米和2.22米,女子为1.92米、1.91米和1.85米;与第17届比赛成绩相比,仅女子前八名成绩略有下降。(4)我国男子跳高运动员具备冲击第18届比赛奖牌的实力,但整体竞技实力仍较低。By analyzing the development of the top 8 achievements of the 8 th to 17 th Wold Athletics U20 Championships high jump with the method of literature review,statistical statistics,gray prediction and logical analysis,this paper predicts the high jump results of the 18 th World Athletics U20 Championships.Four conclusions can be drawn.Firstly,in the 8 th to 17 th competitions,although there are some ups and downs in the performance in each year,and performance of champions showed an overall downward trend,othersresults show good and steady development.Secondly,Chinas high jumpers have achieved excellent results many times in the last 10 championships,but only one woman won the eighth place after the 13 th championship.Thirdly,the results of the grey prediction and the 95%confidence interval show that the average accuracy and credibility of the model are high,and only champions fails to conform to the model because of the development coefficient,so that the predictions of the top three and top eight in the 18 th championship are 2.24 m and 2.22 m for men and1.92 m,1.91 m and 1.85 m for women;there is a slight drop in the womens top eight performance compared to the 17 th championship.Lastly,Chinese mens high jump athletes have the ability to win the 18 th championship medals,but the overall competitive ability is still low.

关 键 词：世界青年田径锦标赛 跳高 运动成绩 灰色预测 

分 类 号：G823.1[文化科学—体育训练]